ANALYSIS — While ticket-splitting remained rare in 2024, it was enough for House Democrats to eat into Republicans’ majority. That will allow the minority party to influence key legislative votes, and keep control of the House within reach in the 2026 midterm elections.
For anyone who thinks 2025 is an “off-year,” past and future elections are already shaping legislative outcomes on Capitol Hill, and the initial House battlefield is coming into focus thanks to districts that voted for a House member and presidential candidate of different parties.
Visionary automotive executive Hal Sperlich passed away on Monday at age 95, which is relevant because you only need two of his Chrysler minivans to fit all of the Democratic members who were elected in districts where Donald Trump finished ahead of Kamala Harris.
According to figures compiled by elections analyst Drew Savicki, 13 House Democrats represent districts that backed Trump. In contrast, three Republican lawmakers won in Harris districts — enough to fit into a Ford Mustang (also a Sperlich creation).
The list of 13 Democrats has some familiar faces: Jared Golden of Maine’s 2nd District (Trump won it with 54 percent of the vote); Marie Gluesenkamp Perez of Washington’s 3rd (Trump 50 percent); and Marcy Kaptur of Ohio’s 9th (Trump 53 percent). The 47th president won all those districts in 2020, as well.
The other nine Democrats are more surprising because their districts flipped from Joe Biden in 2020 to Trump four years later. Some of those shifts were minor, including in the districts represented by Kristen McDonald Rivet (Michigan’s 8th, where Trump won with 50 percent); Don Davis (North Carolina’s 1st, Trump 51 percent); and Susie Lee (Nevada’s 3rd, Trump 49.5 percent).
But some Democrats saw their districts shift to Trump after backing Biden by big margins in 2020. That includes Gabe Vasquez of New Mexico’s 2nd (Trump 50 percent); Henry Cuellar of Texas’ 28th District (Trump 53 percent); Tom Suozzi of New York’s 3rd (Trump 52 percent); Vicente Gonzalez of Texas’ 34th (Trump 52 percent); Nellie Pou of New Jersey’s 9th (Trump 49 percent); Adam Gray of California’s 13th (Trump 51 percent); and Josh Harder of California’s 9th (Trump 49 percent).
Politics of the Hill
There have been at least two examples since November of the 2024 election results having an effect on House business.
Earlier this month, Cuellar and Gonzalez were the only Democrats to vote for legislation known as the Protection of Women and Girls in Sports Act, which Republicans have promoted as a means to “keep men out of women’s sports” by banning transgender athletes. Republicans accused Gonzalez during the 2024 campaign of supporting taxpayer-funded sex changes for minors. Gonzalez won reelection in November by less than 3 points over GOP former Rep. Mayra Flores. (He had defeated Flores by less than 9 points two years earlier in a district that Biden would have carried by around 16 points in 2020.)
Eleven of the 13 Trump-district Democrats were among the 46 from their party who voted Wednesday in favor of the Senate-passed version of a bill that would allow for stricter punishments of undocumented immigrants who commit crimes in the United States. The two House Democrats in Trump seats to vote against the measure, dubbed the Laken Riley Act, were Pou, a New Jersey freshman who’s a member of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, and New Mexico’s Vasquez.
The Trump-district Democrats will be in the spotlight for the next two years. They’re going to be GOP targets in the next election because of how their districts voted. But these same Democratic incumbents could also provide key votes for Republicans to pass legislation that some of their own party members won’t support. And those votes for GOP-sponsored bills could give the vulnerable Democrats tangible examples of votes of moderation — and could make them more difficult to defeat in 2026.
Looking ahead
After increasing their ranks by a single seat in 2024, House Democrats need a net gain of three more seats next year to claim the majority. That narrow margin in the chamber, and Democrats’ difficult 2026 terrain in the Senate, puts the House at the epicenter of the midterm elections.
But the Trump-district Democrats are a good example of how the majority may look close but it is still far away. A key to making gains is holding your own seats, and there’s no guarantee Democrats can retain all their Trump-won districts.
If Hispanic voters trend further toward Republicans, Cuellar, Gonzalez and Vasquez may not be reelected in 2026.
If Golden departs for a statewide run, his largely rural district would be extremely difficult for Democrats to hold. (From Golden’s perspective, it would be easier to get elected statewide in Maine than win reelection to the House.)
And should Republicans nominate someone other than Joe Kent in Washington’s 3rd District, Gluesenkamp Perez could lose.
It wouldn’t even take a big shift or a game-changing event in the wrong direction to make these seats more difficult for Democrats to defend. After all, Trump-district Democrats won four of the 10 closest House races in 2024.
Democrats have few initial takeover opportunities to balance out any potential losses. Three House districts backed Harris for president but reelected their Republican congressman. But Harris underperformed in all three seats compared with Biden in 2020, and it was a microcosm of her struggles nationwide.
The three House Republicans in Harris districts include two well-entrenched incumbents — Don Bacon in Nebraska’s 2nd (Harris 52 percent) and Brian Fitzpatrick in Pennsylvania’s 1st (Harris 50 percent) — as well as Mike Lawler of New York’s 17th (Harris 49.9 percent). Lawler is weighing a run for governor next year, and a vacant seat would be easier for Democrats to flip.
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