In the United States, the presidential elections are usually make or break moments for party leaders.
Most of the people would not remember the losing challengers of Barak Obama in 2008 or 2012 or George W Bush in 2000 or 2004. Is that going to be the fate of former Vice President Kamala Harris who suffered a historic defeat at the hands of President Donald Trump?
In November, Trump did not just win the presidency by Electoral College but also by popular vote — a first for a Republican in decades. The Republicans under him also flipped the control of the Senate. Moreover, Trump won all battleground states and made victorious gain in nearly every demographics — including traditional Democratic-leaning groups such as Black and Hispanic Americans.
While former President Joe Biden had essentially retired when he bowed out of the contest, Harris has not indicated whether she is retiring from electoral politics. Whether she takes up the role of an elder statesperson like Barak Obama or returns to fight another day like Biden did —but Biden never lost as a presidential candidate as the hopeful successor of his boss— remains to be seen.
Former Vice President Kamala Harris
Despite the baggage of her loss, Harris is the most recognised national leader of the Democratic Party.
Harris is connected to most donors, has human resources from her campaign she can tap into, has governance experience, and has an opportunity to learn from mistakes and emerge stronger the next time. Whether that happens remains to be seen, but, for these reasons, she still remains at the top of potential Democratic nominees in the next presidential election in 2028.
There are already signs that Democrats are open to keeping Harris on ticket in 2028. The Hill’s Amie Parnes noted in an article that it’s Biden “who has received the lion’s share of criticism” for the defeat and not Harris.
“In many ways, this was still Joe Biden’s race. Even though she was the nominee in the end, she still had a number of constraints, including the fact that she couldn’t maneuver to distance herself from him when she needed to,” Parnes quoted one ally of Harris as saying.
An Emerson weeks after the election showed Harris leading potential contenders of the party for the 2028 election.
However, even if not her baggage of electoral defeat, an unlikely factor may keep her off the ticket in 2028: her gender. The 2020 electoral loss was not just Harris’ defeat but a victory of ‘manosphere’ over a woman’s platform. Trump won on a platform that sought to curb women’s reproductive rights, transgenders’ rights, and mock gay persons. The reality that the three elections that Trump contested, both of his victories were scored against women cannot be ignored.
Parnes summed up the case against Harris’ candidature: “The last two times Democrats nominated a woman to be their presidential standard-bearer, their candidate lost to Trump. There will be some Democrats who will want to go in a different direction. Harris also led a billion-dollar campaign that lost. And her campaign was far from perfect. There are some Democrats who think it would be foolish to choose the same nominee in 2028 who lost in 2024.”
California Governor Gavin Newsom
California Governor Gavin Newsom is a top Democrat who has made a name for himself as a champion of liberal values. For this reason, he is a darling of many in the Democratic Party and a villain of Trump and his far-right allies.
The Hill’s Parnes called Newsom a “bulwark for Democrats against Trump”.
There are already signs that Newsom is preparing to lead the Democratic resistance to Trump’s assault on liberal values. He has taken measure to fortify state laws to minimise the effect on his state of Trump’s executive orders and incoming legislative agenda.
Jared Leopold, a Democratic strategist and former top official at the Democratic Governors Association, told NBC News that Newsom along with a small bunch of high-profile Democrats is a “household name for most Democrats”, indicating that he could rise to the occasion. Notably, he was in the shortlist to be Harris’ running mate in the 2020 election.
In 2023, Newsom was also seen as a Democratic candidate for 2024 election. He had debated soundly with Ron DeSantis, who was seen as a Republican nominee-worthy leader at the time, and had toured several Republican states to popularise himself with the voters.
Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear
Andy Beshear is the unlikely Democratic governor of the conservative state of Kentucky.
While the idea of attracting moderate voters failed in the 2020 election, if Beshear can bring a new approach to reach out, then he could perhaps bring moderates from across the spectrum to the Democrats’ fold again to build a coalition to challenge Trump.
In 2023, Beshear won Kentucky despite Trump winning it in 2020 by a margin of 26 per cent. He was also on the shortlist to be Harris’ running mate.
Illinois Governor JB Pritzker
Illinois Governor JB Pritzker is among the ambitious Democratic governors who would be eyeing the nomination in 2028.
Along with Newsom and the likes of Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer and Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, Democratic strategist Jared Leopold told NBC News that Pritzker is “a household name for most Democrats”.
Pritzker is popular among the progressives in the party and can emerge in the coming years as a leader of resistance to Trump.
Pritzker has a number of legislative victory to buttress his record, such as securing reproductive rights and raising minimum wage.
The Hill’s Parnes noted that Democrats have applauded the way Pritzker went after Trump the day after he emerged as the winner.
“To anyone who intends to come, take away the freedom and opportunity and dignity of Illinoisans, I would remind you that a happy warrior is still a warrior. You come for my people, you come through me,” said Pritzker at the time.
Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer
Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer has long been seen as a national leader for Democrats.
The Hill’s Parnes noted that a section of the Democratic Party feels that Whitmer could have been a stronger candidate than Harris had there been an open primary process to select the nominee.
Whitmer was seen as a top contender to be Biden’s running mate in 2020 before he picked Harris.
In 2022, Whitmer won a landslide victory to win a second term as Michigan’s governor. As her current term is her second and final as governor, there are hopes that she would make a leap to the national scene.
Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson told NBC News that “people love her” and “she has what it takes to bring people together and lead our country”.
In March 2024, Whitmer indicated she intends to run for office nationally. She told her supporters when she said at event “see you in 2029”.
However, Whitmer being a woman may face the same fundamental challenge as Harris, according to The Hill’s Parnes.
“The next nominee is always a referendum on the last one. I think Harris ran a much better race than anyone could’ve asked for, [but] the obvious takeaway is going to be that we shouldn’t run a woman of color or a woman at all. Sucks, but I don’t see people having a different analysis,” Democratic strategist Christy Setzer told Parnes.
Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro
Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro has been the rising star of the Democratic Party in recent years who has emerged stronger from the loss of Harris.
Shapiro was the finalist to be Harris’ running mate. Harris eventually chose Minnesota Governor Tim Walz.
There are already questions among Democrats whether Shapiro’s presence could have made some difference in the election.
One Democratic donor told The Hill, “We’ll never know how that would play out, but he certainly got a lot of attention for it and I know a lot of us think he definitely has the chops to one day run for higher office. He has a certain gravitas.”
Shapiro is also the leader of the crucial swing state of Pennsylvania. His blue-collar background and sway over the swing state could bolster his chances if he decides to run for the top office of the land someday.
However, Shapiro may face an unlikely roadblock: his religion. As antisemitism is highest in decades in the United Stats, with extremists both on the right and left targeting Jews systematically since the Hamas’ attack on Israel, some observers have said that his religious identity may work against him politically.
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