Amid the evolving dynamics of global politics and in an era of great power competition, can the United States afford to divert its focus to regional conflicts at the expense of its strategic priorities? Prominent leaders and policymakers—from President Donald Trump and former President Joe Biden to National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and Henry Kissinger—have all consistently highlighted that China is the U.S.’s primary strategic competitor. Yet, over the past two decades, U.S. foreign policy has been largely driven by immediate crises in the Middle East and other regions. As a result, China, its primary geopolitical adversary, has gained the opportunity to consolidate power and expand its global influence.
When the U.S. initiated its military engagement in Afghanistan, it had the strategic wherewithal to counterbalance China’s growing power. However, the unpredicted tragedy of 9/11 abruptly shifted American focus toward Afghanistan. Shortly thereafter, attention turned to Iraq, driven by claims from Israeli officials, including Benjamin Netanyahu, that Saddam Hussein posed a nuclear threat and that his removal would stabilize the region. In light of these claims, the U.S. became deeply entangled in conflicts in the Middle East. These interventions persisted over the years, encompassing events such as the Arab Spring in Libya, Syria and other nations, as well as Ukraine’s ongoing conflict with Russia. These prolonged engagements have led to long-lasting wars, instability, and increased radicalization in the region.
China as the global power
During this period, China took advantage of the situation to strengthen its international position. By focusing on economic growth, technological advancement and military expansion, China has emerged as a powerful global power. Today, China holds several key advantages over the U.S. The first is its leading position in global economic size, based on purchasing power parity (PPP). Another is its dominance in global manufacturing and exports. We can also enlist China as a pioneer in advancements in 5G technology, with broad implementation and innovation.
Furthermore, China owns state-of-the-art military technologies, including hypersonic missiles, anti-ship ballistic missiles and 6th-generation fighter jets, in which the U.S. faces significant challenges. It also has the largest naval fleet in the world. Its strategic control over rare earth metals is essential for high-tech industries, including electronics, electric vehicles (EVs), battery technologies and military equipment. Within the next five years, China is expected to surpass the U.S. in critical sectors such as artificial intelligence, biotechnology, digital currencies, financial technologies, semiconductor technologies and cutting-edge scientific research.
Consequently, all these developments have left the U.S. in a vulnerable position, facing mounting challenges in matching China’s increasing influence and aspirations on the global stage. These events raise important questions for past U.S. foreign policymakers to assess critically: Are these outcomes in line with the intended objectives of the U.S.? Who benefited from these foreign policy strategies? Do they reflect any miscalculations, unintended consequences or inevitable results? Additionally, how much has the U.S. financially lost as a result of these foreign policy approaches? The U.S. national debt, which was around $5.8 trillion before the 9/11 attacks, has skyrocketed to approximately $36 trillion by the end of 2024, reflecting an extraordinary increase and the economic consequences of the past two decades.
Troubles on the horizon
President Trump seems to acknowledge these facts and has signaled an intention to reevaluate and potentially reformulate these strategies. In his inaugural speech, he outlined his goal for the Middle East: to “stop the chaos.” However, if the new U.S. administration, influenced by Israeli government pressures or advised by dominant political structures, adopts policies similar to those of the past, it could face significant risks. For instance, the push for a fresh confrontation with Iran, under familiar justifications, could drag the U.S. into another prolonged conflict. At the same time, continued support for terrorist entities such as the PKK (recognized as a terrorist organization by both the U.S. and European Union) and its affiliated forces in Syria, the YPG, not only threatens Türkiye’s national security but also erodes regional stability, undermines state authority and obstructs meaningful progress toward peace. While these actions align with Israel’s regional agendas, such events also weaken U.S. power, empower China and further exacerbate tensions with key NATO allies.
This situation raises fundamental concerns about U.S. priorities. Continued involvement in Middle Eastern conflicts, largely driven by Israel’s regional goals, could ultimately erode American global leadership. Another military intervention in the region would not only undermine the U.S. position but also provide China with a further opportunity to focus on unifying Taiwan. By shifting the U.S.’s focus and resources elsewhere, Russia could also find new opportunities to expand its military operations into western Ukraine, which might strain NATO and create divisions, especially among EU allies. Furthermore, with rising geopolitical conflicts and growing U.S. national debt, these actions could further push the internationalization of the yuan, potentially eroding the dollar’s dominance in global markets. Such a scenario could accelerate China’s rise as a global superpower, potentially outpacing the U.S. in global influence.
Political scientist Zbigniew Brzezinski, in his book “The Grand Chessboard,” and former U.S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger throughout his career, have stressed that “preserving U.S. primacy is essential for global stability and aligns with America’s core interests.” To protect its core interests, the U.S. needs to reassess its approach to the Middle East, moving away from prioritizing conflict-driven policies influenced by Israel’s agendas and terrorist entities. President Trump’s “America First” paradigm appears to signal such a shift, reflecting a strategic recalibration at the heart of his foreign policy vision.
Türkiye as a credible ally
In this context, Türkiye emerges as a pivotal ally, a key NATO member and a critical actor in fostering regional stability. Türkiye emphasizes the necessity of counterterrorism collaboration, particularly regarding groups like the PKK/YPG and Daesh, which pose significant threats to regional security. In response, it seeks the cooperation of its allies to effectively address these threats to foster peace and stability in its neighboring regions while firmly upholding its legitimate right to safeguard border security in accordance with international law. This aligns with Trump’s intention to withdraw U.S. troops from northern Syria, highlighting the need for greater regional cooperation and efforts from Türkiye to ensure stability amidst evolving security challenges.
At the same time, in addressing Iran’s nuclear program, Ankara can provide a balanced and neutral platform, facilitating constructive dialogue and advancing efforts toward a peaceful and diplomatic resolution, as Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has expressed openness to a diplomatic agreement.
Furthermore, Türkiye’s unique geopolitical position and diplomatic initiatives make it an effective mediator capable of contributing not only to Middle Eastern stability but also to broader efforts to “end the Russia-Ukraine war.” President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s distinct leadership, admired by both President Trump and President Vladimir Putin, further enhances Türkiye’s ability to play a pivotal role in this regard.
Achieving stability in the region would, in turn, allow the U.S. to focus on consolidating its power and realigning its strategic priorities. Ultimately, prioritizing diplomatic solutions over regional tensions, in line with international law, remains the most efficient and least costly path toward sustainable peace while preventing the escalation of conflicts that could lead to a global war.
The U.S. faces an important crossroads, and the new administration has four years ahead to address these challenges promptly and effectively. A shift in foreign policy is imperative for the U.S. to safeguard its national security and maintain its global standing. Should the U.S. neglect this shift in approach, it may face a global order influenced by rising powers, such as China, that could conflict with its core objectives.
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