WASHINGTON —
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s Southeast and East Asia strategies will be aimed at countering China by toughening U.S. policies to secure regional peace and maximize American interests, analysts say.
Rubio gave a glimpse of what U.S. foreign policy will look like as he began his first day as the head of the State Department last week.
Speaking to his staff after he was sworn on Jan. 21, Rubio said, “Our job across the world is to ensure that we have a foreign policy that advances the national interest of the United States.”
Referencing President Donald Trump’s objective, Rubio continued that the “overriding goal of global policy is the promotion of peace, the avoidance of conflict.”
Putting “America First” and achieving “Peace through Strength” are twin pillars on which Trump said he will prop up the U.S. as he took office on Jan. 20.
Rubio is currently likely to consult with country directors of the region and coordinate with the Pentagon and intelligence agencies to formulate Asia Pacific strategies, said Richard Armitage, who served as deputy secretary of state during the Bush administration, to VOA Korean on Jan. 24.
“Secretary Rubio’s Southeast Asia policy will focus on countering China through stronger U.S. trade, security partnerships and supply chain diversification,” said Mark Kennedy, director at the Wilson Center’s Wahba Institute for Strategic Competition, to VOA on Jan. 23
On Pyongyang and Moscow, “Rubio will ask China – as Trump did – to help convince North Korea to resume negotiations with the U.S.,” said Joseph DeTrani, who served as special envoy for six-party denuclearization talks with North Korea during the George W. Bush administration.
“If successful, with or without China’s help, this may help to distance North Korea from Russia,” DeTrani told VOA on Jan. 24.
Rubio’s roots
In shaping and executing regional policies, Rubio’s strong opposition to authoritarianism, communism, and human rights violations is likely to “color his approach at the State Department,” said Evans Revere, who served as acting secretary for East Asia and Pacific Affairs during the George W. Bush administration.
The former senator grew up in Miami with Cuban immigrant parents and has exhibited an aversion toward communist governments throughout his political career.
This stance, mixed with the twin foreign policy pillars, are likely to result in tough strategies for countries like North Korea and China and their activities in the region, according to analysts.
Rubio signaled this on a call with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi on Friday, stressing that “the Trump Administration will pursue a U.S.-PRC relationship that advances U.S. interests” and “the United States’ commitment to our allies in the region.” China’s official name is the People’s Republic of China (PRC).
He also expressed “serious concern over China’s coercive actions against Taiwan and in the South China Sea.”
In line with the policy goal of avoiding conflict, Rubio may support Trump’s personal diplomacy with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, said Gary Samore, former White House coordinator for arms control and weapons of mass destruction during the Obama administration.
North Korea said Sunday it conducted a sea-to-surface strategic cruise missile test the previous day.
Rubio, doubtful initially about Trump’s summits with Kim during his first term, said at a confirmation hearing earlier this month that Trump’s personal diplomacy was able to stop the country from testing missiles.
He spoke by phone with South Korean Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yul last week emphasizing the alliance is the linchpin of peace on the Korean Peninsula and across the Indo-Pacific.
In a meeting also last week in Washington, Rubio and Japanese Foreign Minister Iwaya Takeshi discussed North Korea’s ties with Russia.
Rally against China
Among Southeast Asian countries, Rubio last week held calls with the foreign ministers of Indonesia, the Philippines, and Vietnam, each time stressing stable maritime security in the South China Sea.
Particularly in his calls with Philippine Secretary of Foreign Affairs Enrique Manalo, Rubio underscored “PRC’s dangerous and destabilizing actions in the South China Sea.”
With Vietnamese Foreign Minister Bui Thanh Son, Rubio expressed concern over “China’s aggressive behavior in the South China Sea.”
Gregory Poling, director of the Southeast Asia program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), told VOA on January 23 that the Trump administration “will look primarily to the Philippines and outside partners like Japan and Australia to defend freedom of the seas in the South China Sea.”
One of the first meetings Rubio held was with the Australian, Japanese and Indian leaders of the Quad security dialogue last week in Washington where they expressed opposition to unilateral actions to change the status quo of the region by force or coercion and vowed to keep the Indo-Pacific free and open.
Poling continued the administration will look “secondarily to Vietnam, Singapore, and Indonesia to deepen practical maritime cooperation.”
Rubio “may push Indonesia to take a stronger stance vis-à-vis Chinese activities in disputed waters, particularly in light of controversial Indonesia-China maritime development deal signed in November 2024,” Anreyka Natalegawa, associate fellow for the Southeast Asia Program at CSIS told VOA on Jan. 23.
Indonesia and China signed a $10 billion deal in November agreeing to develop fisheries, oil and gas exploration, among other things, across their private sectors.
Diplomatic balancing
Analysts say Washington’s push to have regional countries align more closely with Washington could lead to some tensions. Vietnam, Cambodia and Myanmar tend to lean more toward Beijing, and Indonesia tends to balance its engagement with China and the U.S.
Robert McMahon, a foreign relations expert at The Ohio State University, said Rubio’s harsh stance on China could put Indonesia in a “difficult position, since it has not been willing to join the anti-China bandwagon.”
He told VOA in December after Rubio was nominated as the secretary of state that “to the extent that the United States tries to pressure Indonesia to move in that direction, that could lead to some conflict.”
Rubio said to his State Department staff last week that he expects other countries “to advance their national interests” but hopes “there will be many – in which our national interests and theirs align.”
Seng Vanly, an assistant dean and lecturer at the Techo Sen School of Government and International Relations at the University of Cambodia, said Washington is likely to increase pressure on Cambodia over concerns for human rights, democratic setbacks, and restricted civil society activities, coupled with its growing ties with China.
However, analysts say U.S. foreign policy under Rubio will likely balance issues such as human rights with regional security and economic goals.
Rahman Yaacob, a research fellow for the Southeast Asia program at the Lowy Institute, said, “Washington will be more practical.”
“While it could raise human rights issues with regional countries, the Americans understand if they disengage from the region because of human rights, China will fill in the void,” Yaacob said.
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