Box Office Projections: ‘A Minecraft Movie’ Poised For Big 2nd Weekend
After overperforming in its opening weekend, can Jack Black and Jason Momoa’s A Minecraft Movie defy the odds again?
Based on the Mojang Studio’s blockbuster Minecraft video game, A Minecraft Movie obliterated projections in its opening weekend frame April 4-6, taking in $163 million domestically. A mere couple of days before the film opened, industry publications pegged the film’s three-day opening as low as $65 million but as high as $100 million.
Now, that $65 million is the amount that Deadline projects A Minecraft Movie in its second weekend in theaters, which would be a 60% drop in business from weekend one. However, Box Office Pro — which projected an $85 million to $100 million domestic opening for A Minecraft Movie, this weekend estimates the film will take in anywhere from $70 million to $85 million.
If A Minecraft Movie brings in the top end of Box Office Pro’s projection, it would mean a 50% drop in business — a much better number for its studio, Warner Bros., to handle.
Variety, meanwhile, is casting a wider net for the second frame of A Minecraft Movie, projecting that the film will make anywhere from $60 million to $82 million.
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Even if A Minecraft Movie makes $60 million to $70 million in its second weekend in North American theaters, the film is surely on its way to profitability. After all, the film had a reasonable production budget of $150 million — reasonable, that is, for a tentpole movie — not including prints and advertising, but has grossed $343.9 million worldwide through Wednesday.
Rami Malek in “The Amateur.”20th Century Studios
None Of This Weekend’s Newcomers Are A Match For ‘A Minecraft Movie’
One reason for the drop in ticket sales for A Minecraft Movie this weekend stems from the release of five new titles in wide release this weekend: 20th Century Studios’ The Amateur, Universal Pictures’ Drop, A24’s Warfare, Angel Studio’s The King of Kings and Fathom Events’ The Chosen: The Last Supper Part 3.
If there’s one certainty about this weekend’s box office, none of the new films have even the slightest chance of upending A Minecraft Movie for the No. 1 spot at the domestic box office.
If there’s any intrigue, it will be over which film will generate enough steam to open at No. 2. Deadline projects that both the Rami Malek spy thriller The Amateur and the animated biblical tale The King of Kings will open with about $12 million in ticket sales.
Variety is much more optimistic about The Amateur, projecting a $25 million to $30 million opening weekend.
Box Office Pro, meanwhile, is projecting a $12 million to $16 million opening frame for The Amateur and estimates The King of Kings for a $12 million to $18 million opening take.
Deadline also projects that filmmaker Alex Garland’s Civil War follow-up Warfare will earn $7 million to $9 million for a fourth-place finish in its debut, and the Meghann Fahy and Brendan Sklenar mystery thriller Drop will round out the top five with a $6 million to $7 million opening weekend.
Variety projects that The King of Kings will open in the $12 million to $14 million range and estimates that Warfare and Drop will both make anywhere from $6 million to $8 million.
