Six percent of voters in six states will decide the next president of the United States, a new report claimed on Monday with six months to go until the November 5th election.
National polls show a statistical tie between Joe Biden and Donald Trump but strategists have honed in on the six states they see as key to a victory: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
And in those six states, it will be a margin of six percent of voters who decide the winner, officials from both sides told Axios.
Biden won all six states in the 2020 election but the margins were close: Biden won all of them by less than three points.
And flipping just a little more than 81,139 votes in four of the states – Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin and Georgia – would have handed Trump the White House, the Washington Post found.
There are a few other states in the mix when it comes to the fight for the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency.
Both campaigns are looking closely at North Carolina, which Trump won by a little more than one percent in 2020.
The Trump campaign also argues Minnesota and Virginia are in play – both of which Biden won last time. And Biden’s team argues Florida – Trump’s home state that the former president carried four years ago – is within reach.
But the main focus is on the Democrats’ so-called blue wall, where older, whiter voters in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin as the most competitive for Biden.
It’s seen as more necessary than the Sun Belt states Arizona, Nevada, Georgia and North Carolina.
The Rust Belt states appear more competitive: Trump leads by 1.4 points in Michigan, 2 points in Pennsylvania and 2.8 points in Wisconsin, according to FiveThirtyEight’s polling averages.
Whereas Trump’s margin is greater in the Sun Belt where he leads Biden between 3 and 7 points in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina.
If all the other state results stay the same as in 2020, Biden could lose Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia, along with North Carolina, this November and still win the presidency
But he needs all three Rust Belt states – Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin – for second term in the White House. If Trump wins just one of them, he’ll take the presidency.
Trump has campaigned in Wisconsin and Michigan over the past week – a sign he is trying to knock down Biden’s blue wall. Biden has made repeated visits to the area.
With six months to go, anything can happen and a lot of factors remain in play.
Trump is facing multiple trials on the state and federal level: including a hush-money case in New York, a federal case over his handling of classified documents, and both federal and state charges he tried to overturn the 2020 election results.
Biden, meanwhile, is dealing with an unstable Middle East and progressives who are unhappy with his staunch support of Israel and the treatment of Palestinian refugees.
Then there is Robert Kennedy Jr.’s independent presidential bid. Both Trump and Biden’s teams are worried Kennedy could play a spoiler role, taking voters away from each of them.
Trump has ramped up his criticism of RFK Jr., and Biden rolled out a dozen endorsements from the Kennedy family to counter RFK Jr.’s use of the clan’s political legacy.
Biden’s health remains an issue. The president will turn 82 just weeks after Election Day, Nov. 5, and is already the oldest president in U.S. history; Trump is 77.
And his approval rating remains at a low 38 percent, per Gallup polling.
Meanwhile, Americans remain unhappy with the economy, worried about immigration and fighting over abortion rights.
And a majority of voters have indicated they are not happy about a rematch between the two men.
North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper, a Democrat, said many voters are recovering from what he called ‘a knock-down, drag-out fight’ that was the 2020 presidential election.
‘Many of them have not wrapped their heads around the fact that it is, in fact, going to be a rematch,’ Cooper told the Associated Press. ‘When they do, I don´t think there´s any question that Joe Biden is going to win the day.’
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