HUNT VALLEY, Md. (TND) — Historically, vice presidential picks have not moved the needle when it comes to presidential elections.
Studies show presidential candidates have at least three times the influence on vote choice as the VP does – meaning a veep has to be either super popular or super unpopular to make any difference.
Oftentimes, neither happens.
But, this year’s presidential election might be different.
“This is something that has changed in recent years,” said Richard Vatz, a communications professor at Towson University. “It used to be the case that it didn’t matter who you named as VP. But in recent years, it does seem to matter.”
The main reason now is the historically advanced age of both presidential candidates: President Joe Biden at 81 years old and former President Donald Trump at 77 years old. Vatz said voters cannot say with certainty that either of these candidates would live through the next four years.
For Trump’s re-election bid, not only is he old, but he faces four criminal indictments that could land him behind bars. Granted, he could still technically hold the commander-in-chief title from prison, but he could also be impeached and removed from office if elected.
Even the long-shot, wild-card independent candidate, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., is 70 years old. He selected a 38-year-old lawyer and philanthropist, Nicole Shanahan, as his running mate. He had to pick somebody to get on half of the states’ ballots.
Former President Donald Trump has yet to name his running mate, but a short list has been floating around.
It consists of names like former Democratic Rep. Tulsi Gabbard who turned independent and then into a Fox News contributor; Florida Sen. Marco Rubio; and a slew of figures that ran against Trump for the nomination this cycle like biotech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott, and North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum.
Other names include Texas Gov. Greg Abbott; former Fox News prime-time host Tucker Carlson; South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem; House GOP Conference Chair Rep. Elise Stefanik; and Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance.
Vatz said he cannot picture Trump picking another white male as his running mate because of the optics.
“It would be two definitely conservative people who don’t have a lot of difference on policy between them,” he said, adding Trump’s bid could take a political hit if he chooses someone who cannot do the job, who disagrees with him, who is too young and inexperienced, or somebody from his own state.
That could rule out several of those names.
Trump told Fox Business in January his top criteria for his pick is someone who could “be a good president … in case of emergency.”
Vatz said a “shot in the arm” for Trump’s campaign would be picking former United Nations Ambassador and South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, who posed the biggest threat to Trump during the GOP competition. He argues she could potentially help Trump pick up more moderate voters, and the suburban woman vote.
Yet, Vatz admits this is a long shot, because Trump would have to swallow his pride after the two traded personal barbs during her campaign.
Still, when it comes to Trump, not much can be ruled out.
On the other side of the aisle, Biden is sticking with his veep, Kamala Harris. But many analysts say she is more of a negative to his ticket than a positive. Considering the particular criticism of Biden’s age, this could play more of a factor in this election than 2020.
Polls show Harris is even less popular than Biden.
“I think she was a very bad choice, but I think to kick her off would be a risky choice for him, and Biden doesn’t appear to be a risk taker,” Vatz said.
Whether the veep picks will have much of an impact on this election remains to be seen. Trump has hinted that he will announce his pick closer to the Republican National Convention, which starts July 15.
“These are the oldest presidential candidates we have ever had in an election,” Vatz said. “I think it’d be unwise to choose somebody as vice president who is not going to necessarily be an addition to the ticket.”
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