With pregnant North Atlantic right whales weeks away from their winter migration southward to give birth, biologists who track the endangered marine mammals say 2024 has been a roller coaster ride.
They’ve seen highs – the birth of 20 calves last winter. But they’ve seen plenty of lows, including the likely deaths of four of calves, the confirmed deaths of one other calf and four adult whales and the entanglement of more than a half-dozen whales in fishing gear off the coasts of Canada and the U.S.
As a result, a slight increase in the population estimate released Tuesday by the North Atlantic Right Whale Consortium is presented with cautious optimism, countered by concern the good news could be only temporary.
The new estimate for the critically endangered whales – 372 – is an increase of 12 over last year. Estimates are done in retrospect, so Tuesday’s estimate is for the 2023 population.
Following nearly a decade where the whale population seemed to be in “freefall,” to have the population decline flatten and then to see it begin to increase “even if it’s just by a few animals, I think that’s good news,” said Heather Pettis, chair of the consortium and research scientist at the Anderson Cabot Center for Ocean Life at the New England Aquarium. “I feel like people need to hear some good news about right whales.”
The whale population had risen as high as an estimated 481 animals in 2011, then began declining by 2014, reaching an estimate of fewer than 350 animals in 2020. Scientists say the leading threats to the animals, one of the most endangered large whales in the world, are vessel strikes and gear entanglements.
They’re called right whales because whalers once considered them the “right” whale because they were easy to hunt and floated after being killed.
The end of the freefall is “the most important thing,” said Pettis’ colleague, Philip Hamilton, a senior scientist at the Cabot Center. While a slow increase is “good news,” Hamilton said, “2024 is not good news and we’ll see how it impacts the population estimate when it’s run next year.”
Each winter, pregnant right whales migrate from waters off New England and Nova Scotia to the waters off Georgia and Florida to give birth. Their babies can weigh in at around 2,000 pounds and measure 15 feet long.
One reason for the bump over last year’s estimate is that it includes for the first time all whales born during the previous calving season, calves born during the 2022-2023 season, Hamilton said. In previous estimates, the scientists would wait to confirm each whale through photo identification first. Right whales are identified by unique natural markings and catalogued in a collection the center maintains of more than two million photos dating back to 1935.
Even though an increase in the population is worth celebrating, it’s important to understand the whales aren’t in recovery, Pettis said. Biologists have estimated it would take roughly 40 new calves a year and fewer than one human-related death for the endangered right whale to rebound.
The 20 whales born during the 2023-24 calving season were an increase over the 12 born the previous winter, but the whales should be reproducing at higher rates, Pettis said.
“The reality is we still are in a position where there are too many mortalities and there are too many injuries,” Pettis said. “We need to keep focused on allowing for the whales to do what they need to do to continue to reproduce, grow and hopefully continue an upward trend.”
Over the summer this year, right whales turned up in a few unexpected places. In July and August, a congregation was seen on the edge of the continental shelf east of New York, Hamilton said. At least 80 individuals were identified. The sightings caused concern because the whales were in the same general vicinity as the beginning of the shipping lanes into New York.
Whales also were seen along the continental shelf off Virginia, and for the first time in a while, at least 20 individual whales were identified in the Bay of Fundy, while fewer whales were seen this summer in the Gulf of St. Lawrence, the scientists said.
“Where they are today and tomorrow is not necessarily where they’re going to be a year from now or two years from now,” Pettis said. For management and conservation, she said it’s important to be able to pivot and be flexible to protect the whales where they are being found.
Whale advocacy groups tempered their enthusiasm about the new estimate.
“We need to look at that number with realistic glasses and recognize that new population number is being calculated in a different way than it has in the past,” said Kathleen Collins, senior marine campaign manager at IFAW, an international animal welfare group.
“We do need to continue to work together to reduce those threats, especially as they they change their migratory patterns based on climate change and prey distribution,” Collins said. “We need to continue to push to save this species.”
NOAA has proposed modifying its existing vessel speed rules to protect right whales, to expand the size and time period for seasonal restricted speed zones, extend the restrictions to include most vessels measuring 35 to 65 feet in length, and implement mandatory speed restrictions in temporary speed zones enacted when whales are observed.
The agency expected to adopt the new rule in 2023, however it remains in limbo after igniting widespread concern about its potential impacts on boating, as well as commercial and recreational fishing, especially off the southeastern coast.
In September, the U.S. House natural resources committee passed a bill opposing the restrictions. In a statement, one of its co-authors, Rep. Buddy Carter (R-GA) said technology “exists to track right whales, and we must implement it before endangering boaters’ and harbor pilots’ lives with unworkable speed restriction.”
The consortium is awaiting a final rule, Pettis said. “Certainly the measures that were proposed in that rule, we think will make a difference, so we’ll have to wait and see what the final rule says.”
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