HARRISONBURG, Va. (WHSV) – Barring a major surprise, the United States will likely not know the outcome of the Presidential Election by the end of Tuesday night.
JMU political science professor Marty Cohen said there are a few key factors that will determine when we know whether Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Donald Trump will be the next president.
Cohen said the biggest factor in how long it will take to determine a winner is how close the race ends up being. He said the closer the race is in the key swing states — Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada — the longer the wait will be.
Another factor that will likely draw out the results is that the key swing state of Pennsylvania does not allow early and mail-in votes to start being counted until Election Day. With these components in mind, Cohen said it could be several days or even into the weekend before a presidential winner is determined.
“Based on 2020, it was Saturday afternoon when we officially got word that President Biden was going to win and had won the election, so this is going to be just as close if not closer,” Cohen said. “It could be into the weekend. I wouldn’t be surprised if it was to the weekend unless it breaks one way or the other more decisively. In that case, we could know in one or two days.”
Cohen said presidential elections in the 1980s and 90s were not nearly as close as the ones in the 2000s have been, and the winner was typically able to be announced much sooner. Cohen noted that in the closest election in recent memory — the 2000 race between George W. Bush and Al Gore — a winner was not determined until December.
While Cohen had no prediction for who will win the race, he said that because the race is so nationalized, he thinks it is likely that one candidate will win six or seven of the key swing states. He also said that he will be keeping an eye out to see if there are any surprises from the other 43 states. Cohen noted the possibility of Iowa flipping blue or Virginia flipping red as potential surprises.
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