Daily Archives: November 15, 2024

Why is France eyeing India’s Pinaka launch rocket tech? Its cost & efficiency are tempting

France’s interest in India’s indigenous Pinaka Multiple Launch Rocket System has stirred significant attention recently. While this might have surprised many observers, those closely monitoring the French defence landscape know that this interest began as early as 2022, largely in response to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The defence collaboration between India and France has long been established, and France, already a major arms supplier to India, has worked to further enhance this relationship.
Though many details remain classified, the 2023 India-France defence industrial roadmap signifies this ambition. High-level diplomatic exchanges have further solidified this cooperation, signalling that the collaboration now encompasses more than just exports to India or joint development of French weaponry. It’s also opening doors for New Delhi to supply indigenously made defence systems directly to Paris.
This mutual trust has laid a strong foundation for France to emerge as the second largest defence supplier to India – accounting for over 30 per cent of India’s imports. Additionally, Paris is also one of the largest buyers of Indian defence electronic equipment after the United States. Given India’s battle-tested, advanced, and cost-effective systems like the Pinaka MLRS, France’s interest in diversifying its defence capabilities by evaluating Indian systems comes as little surprise.

Show Full Article

Pressures of the Russia-Ukraine war
France’s initial calls for advanced rocket artillery systems came from its Army Chief of Staff, General Pierre Schill, who highlighted the need before the Parliamentary Defence Committee in November 2023. As a follow-up, the French government announced plans to modernise its military arsenal with new, long-range MLRS by May 2024.For many Western militaries, including France, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom, the earlier generations of rocket artillery were based on the US-designed High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS), which entered service in the 1990s and offered a strike range of 15 to 80 km. These systems became integral to France’s first artillery regiment, with Paris using the LRU (Lance-Roquettes Unitaire) version of the HIMARS.To meet rising demands for artillery and military modernisation in light of the Russia-Ukraine war, President Emmanuel Macron’s administration introduced the Military Programming Law (2024-2030), allocating €600 million for procuring 13 long-range artillery systems by 2030, with another 13 units to be acquired by 2035.
The French defence procurement agency, the Directorate General of Armaments (DGA), has since been carefully reviewing artillery systems from around the world. It’s paying close attention to HIMARS’ performance in Ukraine, and Pinaka’s role in Armenia’s ongoing conflict with Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh.To replenish artillery supplies, France had transferred six of its LRUs to Ukraine so far, reducing its stockpile significantly, especially given that only about 15 units were modernised post-Cold War. Now, with only nine LRUs remaining, France’s rocket artillery capabilities are considerably limited.In his 2023 presentation to the defence committee, General Schill specified that France requires an MLRS with modular capabilities, capable of firing a range of missiles with varying ranges—from 120-150 km and even up to 500 km. With the Military Programming Law in effect, France has the legislative and financial framework to proceed with procuring these capabilities.
Also read: Bought by Armenia, being studied by France, Pinaka rocket system becomes more powerful
France’s options: domestic and international
For now, France’s top choice remains domestically developed systems. Two alliances are competing for the French contract: one between French jet engine maker Safran and European missile manufacturer MBDA, and another between advanced tech company Thales and aerospace company ArianeGroup. However, since France’s tender is open to international bids, American aerospace and defence company Lockheed Martin is expected to propose its long-range HIMARS system.
Yet, the high cost of HIMARS has prompted France to consider alternatives. The August 2024 sale of 22 HIMARS units to Australia was valued at nearly $1 billion, which could be prohibitively expensive for French budgets. This makes the Indian-designed Pinaka MLRS, known for its high performance and cost-effectiveness, an attractive option. The Pinaka Mark III, currently under development, is tailored to meet many of France’s specifications, presenting itself as a viable solution.
Also read: Is Five Eyes destabilising India’s rise as non-white power? Idea is as old as Cold War era
From Pinaka Mark 1 to Mark 3
The Pinaka MLRS, developed by India’s Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO), is fully indigenous and first drew international attention with Armenia’s 2023 purchase. Armenia has relied on the Pinaka in its conflict with Azerbaijan, further strengthening India’s position as Armenia’s top defence supplier. France, as Armenia’s second-largest arms supplier, has been observing Pinaka’s performance in the Caucasus closely, offering Paris firsthand insights into New Delhi’s defence technology capabilities.The origins of the Pinaka system date back to the late 1980s, when the Indian Army needed a modern artillery system to replace the ageing Russian BM-21 Grad system. The Kargil War of 1999 underscored this need, pushing the Indian Army to seek a system capable of accurately targeting enemy positions from a considerable distance. DRDO had already initiated the Pinaka project in 1986, and by the late 1990s, the first-generation Pinaka Mark I, with a range of 40 km, was ready for deployment. Since then, the system has gained a reputation for its reliability, accuracy, and cost-effectiveness, making it a staple in Indian military operations.Today, the Pinaka has evolved into the Pinaka Mark II, which has a range of up to 60-75 kilometres. Work is also underway on extended-range variants that can potentially reach 90 kilometres or more. A single Pinaka battery, consisting of six launch vehicles, can fire a salvo of 72 rockets in just 44 seconds, covering an area of approximately 1,000 by 800 meters. This makes it highly effective against large formations and entrenched enemy targets.
In addition to its firepower, the Pinaka system features an advanced command and control setup, providing high accuracy—over 90 per cent with single firing and up to 99.99 per cent with dual firing. Its flexibility to launch a range of warheads, from high-explosive fragmentation to anti-personnel and anti-tank munitions, makes it versatile for various mission requirements.
Also Read: As Army looks for tracked air defence system, Russian Pantsir comes knocking
The future of Pinaka: potential for Western markets
India is now developing even longer-range Pinaka models, including the Pinaka Mark III, which can hit targets as far as 120 km and potentially up to 300 km. In 2021, the Indian Army tasked DRDO with creating a version capable of matching Chinese multiple-barrel rocket systems with ranges close to 300 km along the Line of Actual Control (LAC).The new variants of Pinaka are expected to incorporate advanced propulsion systems, possibly using hybrid technologies and updated fuel compositions to extend range without sacrificing accuracy. Enhanced guidance systems with satellite navigation, and eventually AI-enabled capabilities, are also likely, making the Pinaka Mark III an increasingly attractive option.With its 300 km range, the Pinaka III is particularly appealing for Western partners looking to build up their aerial artillery capabilities. Its cost-effectiveness and robust performance position Pinaka as a competitive option, especially for countries with budget constraints. As seen with Armenia’s adoption and France’s increasing curiosity about it, the system’s battle-proven versatility and advanced capabilities resonate well beyond India’s borders. This signals its potential for future collaborations and sales in Western defence markets, particlularly Paris.
Pinaka’s French affair is here to stay.The writer is a geopolitics analyst and author. She tweets @swasrao. Views are personal.(Edited by Zoya Bhatti)

Why is France eyeing India’s Pinaka launch rocket tech? Its cost & efficiency are tempting

France’s interest in India’s indigenous Pinaka Multiple Launch Rocket System has stirred significant attention recently. While this might have surprised many observers, those closely monitoring the French defence landscape know that this interest began as early as 2022, largely in response to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The defence collaboration between India and France has long been established, and France, already a major arms supplier to India, has worked to further enhance this relationship.
Though many details remain classified, the 2023 India-France defence industrial roadmap signifies this ambition. High-level diplomatic exchanges have further solidified this cooperation, signalling that the collaboration now encompasses more than just exports to India or joint development of French weaponry. It’s also opening doors for New Delhi to supply indigenously made defence systems directly to Paris.
This mutual trust has laid a strong foundation for France to emerge as the second largest defence supplier to India – accounting for over 30 per cent of India’s imports. Additionally, Paris is also one of the largest buyers of Indian defence electronic equipment after the United States. Given India’s battle-tested, advanced, and cost-effective systems like the Pinaka MLRS, France’s interest in diversifying its defence capabilities by evaluating Indian systems comes as little surprise.

Show Full Article

Pressures of the Russia-Ukraine war
France’s initial calls for advanced rocket artillery systems came from its Army Chief of Staff, General Pierre Schill, who highlighted the need before the Parliamentary Defence Committee in November 2023. As a follow-up, the French government announced plans to modernise its military arsenal with new, long-range MLRS by May 2024.For many Western militaries, including France, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom, the earlier generations of rocket artillery were based on the US-designed High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS), which entered service in the 1990s and offered a strike range of 15 to 80 km. These systems became integral to France’s first artillery regiment, with Paris using the LRU (Lance-Roquettes Unitaire) version of the HIMARS.To meet rising demands for artillery and military modernisation in light of the Russia-Ukraine war, President Emmanuel Macron’s administration introduced the Military Programming Law (2024-2030), allocating €600 million for procuring 13 long-range artillery systems by 2030, with another 13 units to be acquired by 2035.
The French defence procurement agency, the Directorate General of Armaments (DGA), has since been carefully reviewing artillery systems from around the world. It’s paying close attention to HIMARS’ performance in Ukraine, and Pinaka’s role in Armenia’s ongoing conflict with Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh.To replenish artillery supplies, France had transferred six of its LRUs to Ukraine so far, reducing its stockpile significantly, especially given that only about 15 units were modernised post-Cold War. Now, with only nine LRUs remaining, France’s rocket artillery capabilities are considerably limited.In his 2023 presentation to the defence committee, General Schill specified that France requires an MLRS with modular capabilities, capable of firing a range of missiles with varying ranges—from 120-150 km and even up to 500 km. With the Military Programming Law in effect, France has the legislative and financial framework to proceed with procuring these capabilities.
Also read: Bought by Armenia, being studied by France, Pinaka rocket system becomes more powerful
France’s options: domestic and international
For now, France’s top choice remains domestically developed systems. Two alliances are competing for the French contract: one between French jet engine maker Safran and European missile manufacturer MBDA, and another between advanced tech company Thales and aerospace company ArianeGroup. However, since France’s tender is open to international bids, American aerospace and defence company Lockheed Martin is expected to propose its long-range HIMARS system.
Yet, the high cost of HIMARS has prompted France to consider alternatives. The August 2024 sale of 22 HIMARS units to Australia was valued at nearly $1 billion, which could be prohibitively expensive for French budgets. This makes the Indian-designed Pinaka MLRS, known for its high performance and cost-effectiveness, an attractive option. The Pinaka Mark III, currently under development, is tailored to meet many of France’s specifications, presenting itself as a viable solution.
Also read: Is Five Eyes destabilising India’s rise as non-white power? Idea is as old as Cold War era
From Pinaka Mark 1 to Mark 3
The Pinaka MLRS, developed by India’s Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO), is fully indigenous and first drew international attention with Armenia’s 2023 purchase. Armenia has relied on the Pinaka in its conflict with Azerbaijan, further strengthening India’s position as Armenia’s top defence supplier. France, as Armenia’s second-largest arms supplier, has been observing Pinaka’s performance in the Caucasus closely, offering Paris firsthand insights into New Delhi’s defence technology capabilities.The origins of the Pinaka system date back to the late 1980s, when the Indian Army needed a modern artillery system to replace the ageing Russian BM-21 Grad system. The Kargil War of 1999 underscored this need, pushing the Indian Army to seek a system capable of accurately targeting enemy positions from a considerable distance. DRDO had already initiated the Pinaka project in 1986, and by the late 1990s, the first-generation Pinaka Mark I, with a range of 40 km, was ready for deployment. Since then, the system has gained a reputation for its reliability, accuracy, and cost-effectiveness, making it a staple in Indian military operations.Today, the Pinaka has evolved into the Pinaka Mark II, which has a range of up to 60-75 kilometres. Work is also underway on extended-range variants that can potentially reach 90 kilometres or more. A single Pinaka battery, consisting of six launch vehicles, can fire a salvo of 72 rockets in just 44 seconds, covering an area of approximately 1,000 by 800 meters. This makes it highly effective against large formations and entrenched enemy targets.
In addition to its firepower, the Pinaka system features an advanced command and control setup, providing high accuracy—over 90 per cent with single firing and up to 99.99 per cent with dual firing. Its flexibility to launch a range of warheads, from high-explosive fragmentation to anti-personnel and anti-tank munitions, makes it versatile for various mission requirements.
Also Read: As Army looks for tracked air defence system, Russian Pantsir comes knocking
The future of Pinaka: potential for Western markets
India is now developing even longer-range Pinaka models, including the Pinaka Mark III, which can hit targets as far as 120 km and potentially up to 300 km. In 2021, the Indian Army tasked DRDO with creating a version capable of matching Chinese multiple-barrel rocket systems with ranges close to 300 km along the Line of Actual Control (LAC).The new variants of Pinaka are expected to incorporate advanced propulsion systems, possibly using hybrid technologies and updated fuel compositions to extend range without sacrificing accuracy. Enhanced guidance systems with satellite navigation, and eventually AI-enabled capabilities, are also likely, making the Pinaka Mark III an increasingly attractive option.With its 300 km range, the Pinaka III is particularly appealing for Western partners looking to build up their aerial artillery capabilities. Its cost-effectiveness and robust performance position Pinaka as a competitive option, especially for countries with budget constraints. As seen with Armenia’s adoption and France’s increasing curiosity about it, the system’s battle-proven versatility and advanced capabilities resonate well beyond India’s borders. This signals its potential for future collaborations and sales in Western defence markets, particlularly Paris.
Pinaka’s French affair is here to stay.The writer is a geopolitics analyst and author. She tweets @swasrao. Views are personal.(Edited by Zoya Bhatti)

More than 260 million people in USA will be either obese or overweight by 2050: Study

Over the past three decades, there has been a startling increase in the prevalence of obesity across the USA, at least doubling in adult men and women (aged 25 and older) and older female and male adolescents (aged 15-24 years) since 1990, with the number of people living with overweight and obesity reaching over 208 million in 2021—a trend set to continue in the coming decades without significant reform, according to a major new analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study Collaborator Network, published in The Lancet. Especially high levels of overweight and obesity have already been reached in several US states, with over half (52%) of older adolescent males (aged 15-24 years) in Texas and nearly two-thirds (63%) of older adolescent females in Mississippi living with overweight or obesity in 2021. Similarly, in adults (aged 25 or older), around 80% of men in North Dakota and women in Mississippi were estimated to have overweight or obesity in 2021. The study predicts devastating trends at the population level. The total number of US children and adolescents with overweight and obesity is expected to reach 43.1 million by 2050 (an additional 6.74 million from 2021), and the number of adults 213 million (an additional 41.4 million), underscoring the urgent need for concerted population-wide action to reverse these trends and the stark geographical and sex disparities. “Our analysis lays bare the decades-long failure to tackle the growing overweight and obesity epidemic in the USA. The catastrophic consequences of the surge in overweight and obesity among children are already evident in the rising prevalence of childhood hypertension and type 2 diabetes,” said lead author Professor Emmanuela Gakidou from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), University of Washington, USA. “Overweight and obesity can trigger serious health conditions—many of which are now occurring at younger ages, including diabetes, heart attacks, stroke, cancer, mental health disorders, and even premature death. “The soaring health system and economic costs will be equally pervasive, with over 260 million people in the USA, including over half of all children and adolescents, expected to be living with overweight or obesity by 2050. United efforts and urgent investments are needed to alter these troubling trajectories and ensure a healthier future for current and upcoming generations,”   Emmanuela Gakidou said. The new analysis estimated the prevalence of overweight and obesity for children and young adolescents (aged 5-14 years), older adolescents (aged 15-24 years), and adults (aged 25 and older) from 1990 to 2021 with forecasts to 2050 (assuming continuation of past trends and patterns) using 134 unique data sources, including all major national surveillance survey data. The new analysis provides in-depth forecasts, broken down at the state level, as well as by age and sex. Adjustments were made to correct for self-reporting bias. For individuals older than 18 years, overweight was defined as having a BMI of 25 kg/m² to less than 30 kg/m² and obesity was defined as a BMI of 30 kg/m² or higher. For individuals younger than 18 years definitions were based on International Obesity Task Force criteria [1]. 213 million American adults predicted to have overweight or obesity in 2050 Almost three-quarters of the adult population (172 million adults aged 25 or older) in the USA were estimated to be living with overweight or obesity in 2021. The prevalence of obesity rose especially rapidly, doubling between 1990 and 2021 in both adult men (from 18.6% to 41.5%) and women (from 22.8% to 45.6%; see table in Notes to Editors) The estimated prevalence of adult overweight and obesity was high across all states in 2021. In men, levels ranged from 80.6% in North Dakota to 65.3% in Washington DC; while in women, levels ranged from 79.9% in Mississippi to 63.7% in Hawaii (see figures 1C and D in paper.) Continuation of these trends would see overweight and obesity prevalence among adults (age-standardized to allow comparisons between states and over time) rise from an estimated 75.9% in 2021 to around 81.1% for men and from 72.6% to 82.1% for women. This would mean an estimated 41.4 million additional adults living with overweight or obesity by 2050 (raising the total to 213 million, of whom 146 million will have obesity). Concerningly, the prevalence of obesity is projected to increase at a more rapid rate than overweight, and faster among adult men than women. Between 2021 and 2050, the highest rise in obesity prevalence among men is expected in Colorado (up 44.2%) and New Mexico (up 41.2%), and among adult women in Kansas and Colorado (both up 34.9%).   However, the highest levels of obesity are expected to remain in the southern states, with around two-thirds of adult men in West Virginia and Kentucky forecast to be living with obesity by 2050, as well as two-thirds of adult women in 12 states, with especially high rates of obesity predicted in Mississippi, West Virginia, and Arkansas and Alabama (both around 69%; see figure 4B in paper). Interestingly, the onset of obesity has become earlier over subsequent generations. For example, approximately two out of five women born in the 1960s were living with obesity at the age of 45, however the same proportion were living with obesity by the age of 30 for women born in the 1980s, and by the age of 20 for women born in 2020 (see figure 5). “Obesity is at a crisis point throughout the USA, with every state challenged to some degree,” said co-author Affiliate Associate Professor Marie Ng from IHME, University of Washington, USA. “Over the past three decades, the country has experienced extensive economic, demographic, and technological transitions that have triggered profound changes to food and agricultural systems, urbanisation, and wealth and educational inequalities together with underlying structural racism that all interact to drive population-wide obesity—whether it be the marketing of unhealthy food products to children, the proliferation of sedentary online activities, or food deserts (neighbourhoods that lack healthy, affordable food options) that are more common in racial and ethnic minority neighbourhoods.” Unprecedented epidemic of childhood and adolescent obesity The new analysis estimates that older adolescent obesity prevalence rose substantially in the USA between 1990 and 2021, more than doubling in both males (from 8.8% to 22.7%) and females (from 10.1% to 28.8% see table in Notes to Editors). In 2021, an estimated 15.1 million children and young adolescents and 21.4 million older adolescents were living with overweight or obesity. However, they impact segments of the American population differently, with older adolescent females (50.8%) experiencing higher prevalence in 2021 than older adolescent males (46.7%), with especially high rates among older adolescent females in Mississippi, Alabama, and Oklahoma (where levels exceeded 59%), and among older adolescent males in Texas and West Virginia (where levels exceeded 52%; Figure 1A and B in paper). The new study predicts that an additional 3.3 million children and young adolescents and 3.41 million older adolescents will be living with overweight or obesity by 2050 (raising the total to 43.1 million, of whom 24 million will have obesity). With the increase in obesity projected to outpace the increase in overweight, around one in five children and at least one in three adolescents are expected to be living with obesity in 2050. The rising tide of adolescent obesity is projected to reach the highest levels among older adolescent males in Oklahoma (43%), Mississippi (39.8%) and West Virginia (37.7%) in 2050, and affect at least half of older adolescent females living in Mississippi, Arkansas, Oklahoma, and Alabama (see figure 4A). However, the largest numbers of older adolescents with obesity will continue to be in California (1.53 million) and Texas (1.49 million) in 2050. Associate Professor Ng said: “The mechanisms behind the rising obesity prevalence are much more complex than just a matter of excessive energy intake and physical inactivity.” “Existing interventions which focus on lifestyle-based behavioural changes do not produce sufficient and sustainable reductions in overweight and obesity, especially among children and adolescents,” Ng said. “Addressing the structural drivers of population obesity and emphasising prevention must be central to any future strategies. Future interventions also need to account for societal shifts in acceptance of obesity, alongside tailoring solutions by sex and for states with high obesity rates,” Ng said. Population-level prevention and a cross-government strategy key to tackling obesity crisis The analysis notes that while anti-obesity medications like glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1 RAs) have a place in obesity management, they alone will not be enough to solve the obesity epidemic. As Associate Professor Ng explains: “Given the predicted surge in overweight and obesity, demand for anti-obesity medication will definitely increase, but it is not a silver bullet. With concern surrounding prohibitive costs and equitable access, together with varying effectiveness and potentially serious side-effects, prevention will remain a primary strategy.” The authors stress that prevention needs to become a much more dominant focus of obesity control and that any policies aiming to tackle the obesity crisis must be a priority at federal and state governments and backed by high-level political commitment. They should also be comprehensive, reaching individuals across the life course and targeting inequalities. For example, given that obesity is intergenerational, the authors say that intervention needs to begin with pregnant women and early feeding practices. “Rather than relying on individual agency, stronger governance is needed to support and implement a multifaceted whole-system approach to radically disrupt the structural drivers of overweight and obesity at both national and community levels, as well as within households and schools,” said Professor Gakidou. “Federal policymakers must look beyond short-term political goals to target policy interventions not just within the health sector, for example ensuring all children have access to nutritious primary school meals and that there is greater regulation of junk food marketing.” She added: “Above all, reversing the US obesity epidemic will rely on the government supporting programmes that increase levels of physical activity, such as investing in safe and walkable neighbourhoods, guaranteeing the availability of healthy food to children and adolescents, regulating the food and marketing industries, and achieving environmentally sustainable food systems.” The authors note some important limitations, including that while the study uses the best available data, predictions are constrained by the quality and availability of data, and for that reason, they were unable to estimate the prevalence of childhood overweight and obesity at the state level. They also note that the definition of overweight and obesity is based on BMI, which might not account for variations in body structure across the population, and that they did not examine racial and ethnic disparities in obesity. Finally, past trends are not always predictive of what will happen in the future, and some factors, like the recent surge in the use of GLP-1 anti-obesity medications could alter the longer-term forecasting trends of overweight and obesity.

More than 260 million people in USA will be either obese or overweight by 2050: Study

Over the past three decades, there has been a startling increase in the prevalence of obesity across the USA, at least doubling in adult men and women (aged 25 and older) and older female and male adolescents (aged 15-24 years) since 1990, with the number of people living with overweight and obesity reaching over 208 million in 2021—a trend set to continue in the coming decades without significant reform, according to a major new analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study Collaborator Network, published in The Lancet. Especially high levels of overweight and obesity have already been reached in several US states, with over half (52%) of older adolescent males (aged 15-24 years) in Texas and nearly two-thirds (63%) of older adolescent females in Mississippi living with overweight or obesity in 2021. Similarly, in adults (aged 25 or older), around 80% of men in North Dakota and women in Mississippi were estimated to have overweight or obesity in 2021. The study predicts devastating trends at the population level. The total number of US children and adolescents with overweight and obesity is expected to reach 43.1 million by 2050 (an additional 6.74 million from 2021), and the number of adults 213 million (an additional 41.4 million), underscoring the urgent need for concerted population-wide action to reverse these trends and the stark geographical and sex disparities. “Our analysis lays bare the decades-long failure to tackle the growing overweight and obesity epidemic in the USA. The catastrophic consequences of the surge in overweight and obesity among children are already evident in the rising prevalence of childhood hypertension and type 2 diabetes,” said lead author Professor Emmanuela Gakidou from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), University of Washington, USA. “Overweight and obesity can trigger serious health conditions—many of which are now occurring at younger ages, including diabetes, heart attacks, stroke, cancer, mental health disorders, and even premature death. “The soaring health system and economic costs will be equally pervasive, with over 260 million people in the USA, including over half of all children and adolescents, expected to be living with overweight or obesity by 2050. United efforts and urgent investments are needed to alter these troubling trajectories and ensure a healthier future for current and upcoming generations,”   Emmanuela Gakidou said. The new analysis estimated the prevalence of overweight and obesity for children and young adolescents (aged 5-14 years), older adolescents (aged 15-24 years), and adults (aged 25 and older) from 1990 to 2021 with forecasts to 2050 (assuming continuation of past trends and patterns) using 134 unique data sources, including all major national surveillance survey data. The new analysis provides in-depth forecasts, broken down at the state level, as well as by age and sex. Adjustments were made to correct for self-reporting bias. For individuals older than 18 years, overweight was defined as having a BMI of 25 kg/m² to less than 30 kg/m² and obesity was defined as a BMI of 30 kg/m² or higher. For individuals younger than 18 years definitions were based on International Obesity Task Force criteria [1]. 213 million American adults predicted to have overweight or obesity in 2050 Almost three-quarters of the adult population (172 million adults aged 25 or older) in the USA were estimated to be living with overweight or obesity in 2021. The prevalence of obesity rose especially rapidly, doubling between 1990 and 2021 in both adult men (from 18.6% to 41.5%) and women (from 22.8% to 45.6%; see table in Notes to Editors) The estimated prevalence of adult overweight and obesity was high across all states in 2021. In men, levels ranged from 80.6% in North Dakota to 65.3% in Washington DC; while in women, levels ranged from 79.9% in Mississippi to 63.7% in Hawaii (see figures 1C and D in paper.) Continuation of these trends would see overweight and obesity prevalence among adults (age-standardized to allow comparisons between states and over time) rise from an estimated 75.9% in 2021 to around 81.1% for men and from 72.6% to 82.1% for women. This would mean an estimated 41.4 million additional adults living with overweight or obesity by 2050 (raising the total to 213 million, of whom 146 million will have obesity). Concerningly, the prevalence of obesity is projected to increase at a more rapid rate than overweight, and faster among adult men than women. Between 2021 and 2050, the highest rise in obesity prevalence among men is expected in Colorado (up 44.2%) and New Mexico (up 41.2%), and among adult women in Kansas and Colorado (both up 34.9%).   However, the highest levels of obesity are expected to remain in the southern states, with around two-thirds of adult men in West Virginia and Kentucky forecast to be living with obesity by 2050, as well as two-thirds of adult women in 12 states, with especially high rates of obesity predicted in Mississippi, West Virginia, and Arkansas and Alabama (both around 69%; see figure 4B in paper). Interestingly, the onset of obesity has become earlier over subsequent generations. For example, approximately two out of five women born in the 1960s were living with obesity at the age of 45, however the same proportion were living with obesity by the age of 30 for women born in the 1980s, and by the age of 20 for women born in 2020 (see figure 5). “Obesity is at a crisis point throughout the USA, with every state challenged to some degree,” said co-author Affiliate Associate Professor Marie Ng from IHME, University of Washington, USA. “Over the past three decades, the country has experienced extensive economic, demographic, and technological transitions that have triggered profound changes to food and agricultural systems, urbanisation, and wealth and educational inequalities together with underlying structural racism that all interact to drive population-wide obesity—whether it be the marketing of unhealthy food products to children, the proliferation of sedentary online activities, or food deserts (neighbourhoods that lack healthy, affordable food options) that are more common in racial and ethnic minority neighbourhoods.” Unprecedented epidemic of childhood and adolescent obesity The new analysis estimates that older adolescent obesity prevalence rose substantially in the USA between 1990 and 2021, more than doubling in both males (from 8.8% to 22.7%) and females (from 10.1% to 28.8% see table in Notes to Editors). In 2021, an estimated 15.1 million children and young adolescents and 21.4 million older adolescents were living with overweight or obesity. However, they impact segments of the American population differently, with older adolescent females (50.8%) experiencing higher prevalence in 2021 than older adolescent males (46.7%), with especially high rates among older adolescent females in Mississippi, Alabama, and Oklahoma (where levels exceeded 59%), and among older adolescent males in Texas and West Virginia (where levels exceeded 52%; Figure 1A and B in paper). The new study predicts that an additional 3.3 million children and young adolescents and 3.41 million older adolescents will be living with overweight or obesity by 2050 (raising the total to 43.1 million, of whom 24 million will have obesity). With the increase in obesity projected to outpace the increase in overweight, around one in five children and at least one in three adolescents are expected to be living with obesity in 2050. The rising tide of adolescent obesity is projected to reach the highest levels among older adolescent males in Oklahoma (43%), Mississippi (39.8%) and West Virginia (37.7%) in 2050, and affect at least half of older adolescent females living in Mississippi, Arkansas, Oklahoma, and Alabama (see figure 4A). However, the largest numbers of older adolescents with obesity will continue to be in California (1.53 million) and Texas (1.49 million) in 2050. Associate Professor Ng said: “The mechanisms behind the rising obesity prevalence are much more complex than just a matter of excessive energy intake and physical inactivity.” “Existing interventions which focus on lifestyle-based behavioural changes do not produce sufficient and sustainable reductions in overweight and obesity, especially among children and adolescents,” Ng said. “Addressing the structural drivers of population obesity and emphasising prevention must be central to any future strategies. Future interventions also need to account for societal shifts in acceptance of obesity, alongside tailoring solutions by sex and for states with high obesity rates,” Ng said. Population-level prevention and a cross-government strategy key to tackling obesity crisis The analysis notes that while anti-obesity medications like glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1 RAs) have a place in obesity management, they alone will not be enough to solve the obesity epidemic. As Associate Professor Ng explains: “Given the predicted surge in overweight and obesity, demand for anti-obesity medication will definitely increase, but it is not a silver bullet. With concern surrounding prohibitive costs and equitable access, together with varying effectiveness and potentially serious side-effects, prevention will remain a primary strategy.” The authors stress that prevention needs to become a much more dominant focus of obesity control and that any policies aiming to tackle the obesity crisis must be a priority at federal and state governments and backed by high-level political commitment. They should also be comprehensive, reaching individuals across the life course and targeting inequalities. For example, given that obesity is intergenerational, the authors say that intervention needs to begin with pregnant women and early feeding practices. “Rather than relying on individual agency, stronger governance is needed to support and implement a multifaceted whole-system approach to radically disrupt the structural drivers of overweight and obesity at both national and community levels, as well as within households and schools,” said Professor Gakidou. “Federal policymakers must look beyond short-term political goals to target policy interventions not just within the health sector, for example ensuring all children have access to nutritious primary school meals and that there is greater regulation of junk food marketing.” She added: “Above all, reversing the US obesity epidemic will rely on the government supporting programmes that increase levels of physical activity, such as investing in safe and walkable neighbourhoods, guaranteeing the availability of healthy food to children and adolescents, regulating the food and marketing industries, and achieving environmentally sustainable food systems.” The authors note some important limitations, including that while the study uses the best available data, predictions are constrained by the quality and availability of data, and for that reason, they were unable to estimate the prevalence of childhood overweight and obesity at the state level. They also note that the definition of overweight and obesity is based on BMI, which might not account for variations in body structure across the population, and that they did not examine racial and ethnic disparities in obesity. Finally, past trends are not always predictive of what will happen in the future, and some factors, like the recent surge in the use of GLP-1 anti-obesity medications could alter the longer-term forecasting trends of overweight and obesity.

Biden-Harris Administration Announces CHIPS Incentives Award with TSMC Arizona to Secure U.S. Leadership in Advanced Semiconductor Technology

Biden-Harris Administration Announces CHIPS Incentives Award with TSMC Arizona to Secure U.S. Leadership in Advanced Semiconductor Technology – Technology Today – EIN Presswire

Biden-Harris Administration Announces CHIPS Incentives Award with TSMC Arizona to Secure U.S. Leadership in Advanced Semiconductor Technology

Biden-Harris Administration Announces CHIPS Incentives Award with TSMC Arizona to Secure U.S. Leadership in Advanced Semiconductor Technology – Technology Today – EIN Presswire