The ‘science’ of polling is broken

On Nov. 4, the day before the presidential election, the polling firm Research Co. released its final survey. Unsurprisingly, it concluded that “the battleground states remain closely contested.”In typically blue New Jersey, however, the survey showed Kamala Harris with a 17-point advantage. This was in line with other recent polls. A mid-October poll by Rutgers University’s Eagleton Center found Harris leading by 20 points. And why not? Biden, after all, won the Garden State in 2020 by nearly 16 percentage points.With the final votes still being counted, Harris’s margin in New Jersey is only 6 points, a double-digit difference from most of the polling data in that state in this cycle. Bergen County — a wealthy suburb just over the Hudson River from New York City — swung 13 points in Donald Trump’s direction.Pre-election polling failed to capture other equally profound political shifts around the country. Loudon County, Va., a short commute from Washington, D.C., and home to the country club wing of the government bureaucracy, swung nearly 10 points toward Trump. Miami-Dade — one of the last blue bastions in Florida — swung 20 points. Closer to home, Fall River turned from a reliably Democratic stronghold into one of the many New England towns we can now safely regard as Trump territory.You’d expect to see this kind of sea change reflected in the polls before the election. But we didn’t.Overall, polling in battleground states may have been marginally more accurate this year than it was in past election cycles. But the fact that polling this year missed the broader shift to the right reveals a more important truth: Polling as we’ve known it over the last century is irreparably broken. And like so many of our broken things, we don’t yet know how to replace it.The notion of gauging public opinion on anything — from support for fascism to whether people prefer Fluff over peanut butter — traditionally was based on one important thing: the random sample. It became a staple of political polling in 1936, when George Gallup used the method to contradict the conventional wisdom that FDR was headed for a historic defeat.“As recently as 1983, if you wanted to know what people thought, you made a thousand calls, conducted interviews with the six hundred who answered the phone, and were literally thirty minutes away from releasing the poll,” says Michael A. Bailey, a Georgetown University public policy professor and author of “Polling at a Crossroads: Rethinking Modern Survey Research.”The size of the sample alone virtually guaranteed a representative cross-section of America. “It’s amazing,” Bailey says: Surveys back then would be accurate on many levels, “down to including the right number of people with diabetes, even if they don’t know they have diabetes.”That was then; this is now. Decades of declining trust in institutions and the proliferation of spam across all our communication networks have led to an explosive growth in what pollsters call non-response bias, which simply means that the one person out of a hundred who does respond to an unknown caller on their cellphone is unlikely to be representative of most Americans. “By definition they’re weird, right?” says Bailey. “They’re literally one out of a hundred.”One paragon of the random sampling method — the highly respected Iowa pollster Ann Selzer — shocked politicos and thrilled Harris supporters by releasing a poll the weekend before the election indicating that Harris led Trump in Iowa by three points. Iowa had not voted for a Democrat for president since Barack Obama in 2012. Last week the state went for Trump by 13 points. Selzer was off by 16 points.When it takes a hundred calls to reach a single likely voter, random samples are neither random nor samples in any meaningful sense. Most polling firms have reacted to this challenge by using ever more elaborate models to “weight” the data they get from the people who respond. They construct representations of our diverse society by relying on data collected via Doodle polls and other online questionnaires and paid surveys. Modeling uses complex mathematical formulas to estimate one district’s political leanings based on factors such as its previous voting records, the demographic breakdown within that district, and how places with similar demographics have previously voted.In a polarized country that delegates its most consequential elections to a handful of states, these models were mostly focused on pinpointing the sentiments of the residents of these battlegrounds and ignoring the rest of us. Modeling with weighted samples worked great in 2008 and 2012 (while Gallup, still relying on random sampling, underestimated Barack Obama’s support by 9 percentage points). But modeling has had diminishing returns ever since.In this cycle most pollsters — chastened by their failures to predict the true level of Trump’s support in the last two cycles — weighted their results based on how respondents remembered previously voting. This led to the seemingly accurate results in the swing states because “these models basically said, ‘This vote will be like the last vote,’ and in some places that was more or less true but with a small tilt toward Trump,” notes Bailey.But that doesn’t mean polls told us an important and true story about America. That story was playing out, largely undetected, in Bergen County and Fall River and a thousand other locations. If you looked at nearly every poll and read coverage from across the political spectrum, you still had no idea that the Obama coalition of unions, urban professionals, and racial minorities had been rent asunder, a demographic earthquake that will require the party to rethink its basic purpose.“Right now the modeling, for all its sophistication, has a hard time detecting change,” Bailey says. “Polling is in need of a new paradigm.”The problem is that detecting change is precisely what we depend on polls to do. When they can’t, the world becomes a dimmer, less comprehensible place.Jeff Howe, a former contributing editor at Wired magazine, is an associate professor of journalism at Northeastern University. Ian Dartley, a freelance reporter and recent graduate of Northeastern’s master’s in journalism program, contributed research for this article.

Nolotil under the microscope: What is the science behind the infamous Spanish painkiller linked to multiple British deaths?

THIS is what science says about infamous Spanish painkiller Nolotil after being linked to multiple British fatalities.

In Spain, Nolotil (metamizole) is a trusted choice for moderate pain, particularly post-surgery and in cancer patients, as it’s stronger than ibuprofen yet considered relatively safe. 

However, for British and Irish visitors, this seemingly harmless remedy carries a deadly risk. While approved for use in Spain and a handful of other countries, Nolotil is outright banned in the UK, US, and 40 other countries due to its link to a rare but often fatal condition: agranulocytosis, an uncommon and potentially fatal drop in white blood cells that leaves the body vulnerable to deadly infections.

Over recent years, cases have surfaced of British and Irish tourists suffering severe reactions, and even fatalities, after taking Nolotil. 

Previous Olive Press reports have spotlighted several tragic cases, spurring calls for increased regulation.

Kathy Olson reflects on her legacy as she retires from Owensboro Museum of Science and History

After more than 17 years at the helm, Kathy Olson is stepping down as the CEO of the Owensboro Museum of Science and History, leaving behind a legacy rooted in storytelling, education, and community connection.

Olson has been involved with the museum since its inception in 1966. She said her journey with the institution began when she was just 11 years old. Her father was a General Electric employee and seashell enthusiast who volunteered at the museum when it was located on Sycamore Street.

“My dad loved the natural world, and our family vacations revolved around collecting shells,” Olson said. “That passion led to connections with the Smithsonian, where he had one of his discoveries cataloged. Those early experiences shaped my lifelong love for science and history.”

Olson’s professional career at the museum began in 1990 when she joined as a registrar and later became curator of collections. She was named interim director in July 2006 before assuming the role permanently in January 2007. During her tenure, Olson oversaw numerous expansions and initiatives, including the museum’s Noon Year’s Eve Family Celebration, a family-themed New Year’s Eve celebration.

“At the end of the day, museums are about telling stories,” Olson said. “For us, it’s about preserving the natural history of Western Kentucky and sharing Owensboro’s history. But it’s also about helping families create their own stories through our programs and exhibits.”

The museum has seen significant growth under Olson’s leadership, including new galleries, structural improvements, and increased community engagement. Recent upgrades funded by a $1.1 million appropriation from the Commonwealth of Kentucky have modernized the facility, with projects such as exterior painting, facade cleaning, HVAC upgrades, and elevator repairs underway.

Looking ahead, the museum’s board will launch a search for Olson’s successor. In the interim, board member Ed Allen, who previously served as director in the late 1990s, will assume the role.

“Ed’s experience and the dedication of our board will guide the museum forward,” Olson said. “I’m confident they’ll take the time to find the right leader to continue our mission.”

Although Olson is retiring from her leadership role, she isn’t stepping away entirely. She plans to work part-time, focusing on collections and educational programs. The reduced workload will allow her to spend more time with her family, including her two grandsons.

“This change allows me to reconnect with my roots at the museum while also being present for my grandkids,” Olson said. “Family is so important, and this feels like the right time to shift my focus.”

Reflecting on her career, Olson grew emotional as she acknowledged the mentors and colleagues who shaped her journey. She highlighted the late Sam Davenport, a former board chair and steadfast supporter of the museum, as one of many who made a lasting impact.

“The museum’s success has always been about teamwork,” Olson said. “It’s the combined efforts of staff, board members, and volunteers that make everything possible. I’m so grateful for their dedication.”

As Olson prepares to enter a new chapter, she hopes the museum will continue telling the stories of Owensboro for generations to come.

Bhairathi Ranagal bo report day 2: Shivarajkumar’s film earns nearly Rs 2 crore

The Shivarajkumar-led Bhairathi Ranagal, which hit the screens on November 15, is doing well at the domestic box office, It has also received positive reviews from the audience. The crime drama collected Rs 2 crore on the first day. It then witnessed some growth on Saturday (November 16). Bhairathi Ranagal day 2 box office collectionBhairathi Ranagal, Shivanna’s second Kannada film of the year, is doing well at the domestic box office. According to Sacnilk, a trade website, the film collected Rs 2.15 crore on Saturday (November 16). This is slightly higher than the Rs 2 crore it collected on the first day. Bhairathi Ranagal’s total collection stands at Rs 4.15 crore.[embedded content]The Narthan-helmed film is expected to grow further today (November 17), its first Sunday, as the word-of-mouth is positive. The movie doesn’t face much competition from Suriya’s Kanguva as the Siva-helmed fantasy drama has failed to impress the audience. This is likely to work in Bhairathi Ranagal’s favour on the weekdays. About Bhairathi RanagalBhairathi Ranagal, a sequel and a prequel to the 2017 blockbuster Mufti, is an action drama that features Shivanna in the role of a crime boss and explores his backstory. The narrative also examines the events that take place after Mufti. Bhairathi Ranagal is directed by Narthan. The movie features Rukmini Vasanth, Rahul Bose, and Devaraj in key roles. The film’s music is composed by Ravi Basrur, who emerged as a force to reckon with because of his work on Salaar and KGF. This is Shivanna’s second Kannada release of the year after Karataka Damanaka , which hit the screens in March. The film, which featured Prabhudeva in a key role, was inspired by the Panchatantra and starred Priya Anand as the leading lady. Shivanna will soon be seen opposite a Bollywood star in a ‘mature’ love story. He recently confirmed that he has been offered a role in H Vinoth’s Thalapathy 69, starring Vijay. It is the last film of Vijay’s career as he will turn his attention to politics after its release. For more news and updates from the world of OTT, and celebrities from Bollywood and Hollywood, keep reading Indiatimes Entertainment.

The essential role of business continuity management in FinTech

Business Continuity Management is a domain of growing importance for FinTechs, empowering them to overcome barriers, build resilience and advance risk operations, writes Muhammad Kashif, Associate Director at ECOVIS Al Sabti.
Financial technology (‘FinTech’) has rapidly transformed the financial services industry in the recent years. FinTech has redefined traditional business models by leveraging advanced technology, data analytics, and accessible solutions for everyday users. This transformation has accelerated growth across multiple sectors, including retail banking, education, fundraising, and investment management.
With FinTechs growing their reliance on technology, the need for resilient business practices, such as Business Continuity Management (BCM), has become critical.
SAMA’s expectation from FinTechs
In Saudi Arabia, regulators like the Saudi Central Bank (SAMA) have emphasized the need for strong BCM frameworks, particularly for FinTech license holders. SAMA’s emphasis on BCM compliance highlights the necessity for FinTech firms to develop resilient strategies that align with the regulatory standards, thus enhancing customer trust, and supporting sustained growth within the financial landscape of the Kingdom.
The BCM framework set by SAMA is notably stringent, encompassing thirteen (13) key areas with seventy-five (75) high-level controls. These elements are structured to ensure that FinTech companies are well-prepared to manage and swiftly recover from potential disruptions, thereby safeguarding their own operations and contributing to the stability of Saudi Arabia’s broader financial ecosystem.
How BCM helps FinTech companies
Business Continuity Management is an essential framework for FinTech companies, helping them mitigate risks and ensure operational stability in a rapidly changing and complex regulatory environment. It equips these organizations with protocols needed to anticipate disruptions and maintain service delivery, thereby strengthening their competitiveness in the market.
Enhanced Risk Management

Operating in a dynamic, highly regulated environment, FinTech companies face myriad risks, from cybersecurity threats to regulatory changes.
BCM helps identify and assess these risks, facilitating the creation of robust mitigation strategies that safeguard operations and ensure preparedness for potential incidents.
By employing BCM, companies can manage continuity risks effectively by identifying the time-critical services and processes. This can proactively plan alternative arrangements and adapt swiftly to evolving challenges.

Building Operational Resilience

FinTech organizations heavily depend on technology and data systems to deliver their services.
BCM ensures that these critical functions are resilient and capable of rapid recovery during disruptions, reducing downtime and sustaining uninterrupted service; an essential requirement for maintaining customer trust and operational stability.

Ensuring Regulatory Compliance

SAMA mandates that financial institutions, including FinTech firms, have sound BCM frameworks to uphold service continuity during crises.
Compliance with these standards not only helps companies avoid penalties but also strengthens their credibility with clients and partners, einforcing a commitment to security and continuity.

Strengthening Customer Trust and Reputation

FinTech companies that prioritize BCM demonstrate their commitment to protect stakeholders’ interests, ensuring seamless service, even in turbulent times.
This dedication fosters customer loyalty and boosts the organization’s reputation as a trustworthy partner.

Cost-Effective Solutions for Incident Management

An effective preplanned and well-thought BCM strategy helps organizations minimize financial loss, operational downtime, and reputation damage that can be caused by unmanaged disruptions.
By proactively identifying and addressing risks, FinTech firms can avoid the costly impacts of potential incidents, thereby contributing to long-term financial stability.

Competitive Advantage through Resilience

Organizations that can quickly recover from disruptions have a clear competitive advantage in Saudi Arabia’s business landscape.
By investing in BCM, FinTech companies not only enhance operational resilience but also demonstrate a commitment to excellence, setting them apart in a fast-paced, interconnected market.

ECOVIS Al Sabti is an award-winning consulting firm with offices in Riyadh, Jeddah, Khobar, and Manama. The firm is a member of ECOVIS, a global consulting firm rooted in Continental Europe.

Where is Fire Country filmed? Here is where it all happens

Fire Country is an American action drama series created by Max Thieriot, Tony Phelan, and Joan Rater. The CBS series premiered on October 7, 2022, and draws inspiration from Thieriot’s childhood experiences in Northern California. Explore the fiery landscapes of the drama series: where is Fire Country filmed?Fire Country focuses on the challenges inmate firefighters face as they navigate personal struggles in their quest for redemption. Photo: @Fire Country on Facebook (modified by author)Source: FacebookTABLE OF CONTENTSThe captivating drama Fire Country draws viewers into a world of intense firefighting and personal redemption. While the series is set in the fictional town of Edgewater, many may wonder about the real filming location. Discover the setting for Fire Country.Where is Fire Country filmed?Fire Country is filmed in Vancouver, Canada and Humboldt County, California. These scenic landscapes bring thrilling action to life. The series captures the intensity of firefighting and personal drama brought to life by the stunning backdrops in the film. During an interview with James Corden in December 2022, James asked Max Thieriot about where Max received the inspiration to create the hit show. Max said:Read alsoWhere is the Mayor of Kingstown filmed? The series’ filming locationsA lot of inspiration came from my hometown. I grew up in a crazy small country town in Northern California and it’s very much a firefighting community. People did not know there are inmate firefighters. My friend said, ‘Dude this is a show!’ Fire Country is an American action drama series that draws inspiration from Thieriot’s childhood experiences in Northern California. Photo: @FireCountryCBS on X (modified by author)Source: OriginalExplore fascinating facts about Fire Country’s filming locations; 1. Vancouver, British Columbia, CanadaThe Fire Country TV show is primarily filmed in British Columbia, Canada. Many scenes are shot in and around the stunning landscapes of the Vancouver metropolitan area, which depicts the show’s fictional town, Edgewater. The area’s lush greenery and spectacular views saved time for the production team, as no effort was made to make it look like the real-life Cal Fire. The series was also filmed in different areas within the Vancouver metropolitan area. These include;The series uses the nearby village of Fort Langley to portray the fictional Northern California town of Edgewater. Photo: @Fire Country on Facebook (modified by author)Source: FacebookAnmore, British Columbia, Canada Anmore is a village in Metro Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada. It is north of the city of Port Moody and along the shores of the Indian Arm. A building in this village serves as Edgewater’s Station 42, featured in most Fire Country episodes. Read alsoWhere is Yellowstone filmed? Discover the series’ top locationsThe house is surrounded by trees and nature, creating a dramatic and picturesque effect of what a firehouse in a small town in Northern California should look like. The firehouse also serves as the home-away-from-home for most of Fire Country’s central characters, including Gabriela, Jake, Eve, and Vince.Fort Langley, British Columbia, CanadaFort Langley is part of the larger City of Langley. It is home to various vintage shops, galleries, breweries, eateries, and some of the best golf courses.Fort Langley, with its picturesque buildings, spectacular locations, and community settings, doubles as the village of Edgewater. Fire Country also features the closely-knit community of Edgewater, which usually helps the Cal Fire and Three Rock Conservation Camp rebuild after impactful natural disasters. Vancouver Film Studios, Vancouver, British Columbia, CanadaVancouver Film Studios is a film production facility in Vancouver and consists of 12 purpose-built sound stages, eight production offices, and other support spaces. The McLean Group of Companies operates the studio.Read alsoAll Creatures Great and Small season 5: Release date, Tristan’s return, trailer, cast, season 6While most scenes in the Fire Country franchise occur outdoors, some of the show’s scenes, including Eve and Jake’s get-togethers, occur indoors. The Vancouver Film Studios provide the perfect setting for shooting Interiors of the Fire Country while maintaining the same style as the fictional Edgewater town. Fire Country follows a young convict Bode who joins a firefighting program in hopes of shortening his prison sentence. Photo: @Fire Country on Facebook (modified by author)Source: Facebook2. California, USAAlthough Fire Country is primarily filmed in Vancouver, its trailer establishes the setting by showing some California locations. The footage features Rio Dell, Eel River Valley, and Wildwood Avenue in Humboldt County, California. Additionally, Rio Dell is a filmmaker’s dream due to its mild weather, affordable locations, and flexible permits.How many seasons of Fire Country are there?The binge-worthy TV show has recently been one of CBS’ biggest hits and has two completed seasons. Season 3, which premiered on October 18, 2024, is starting to get off the ground, and so far, four episodes have been streamed since. You can watch the series episodes on Paramount+ on Fridays at 9 PM ET.Read alsoWhere was Vampire Diaries filmed? Discover the real-life locations of Mystic FallsIs Fire Country based on a true story?Fire Country is not explicitly based on a true story but incorporates elements from real-life situations. The series, created by Max Thieriot, is set in Edgewater, California, and revolves around a real-life convict fire camp that assists Cal Fire during wildfires. Since World War II, the program has utilized inmate firefighters to help combat wildfires. The action drama series captures the intensity of firefighting and personal drama brought to life by the stunning backdrops in the film. Photo: @Fire Country on Facebook (modified by author)Source: FacebookIs Edgewater from Fire Country a real place?Edgewater, the fictional town in Fire Country, does not exist in real life. The show is set in a made-up location meant to be located in Northern California. Is Fire Country Season 2 streaming on Netflix? Fire Country Season 2 is not currently streaming on Netflix. It is exclusively available on Paramount+, the primary platform for the Fire Country series. While Season 1 has been available on Netflix since August 1, 2023, there is speculation that Season 2 could arrive on Netflix around June or July 2025, following a similar release pattern as the first season. Read alsoWarrior season 4 release date & latest updates: Is it happening?How many episodes are there on Fire Country Season 1?Fire Country Season 1 consists of 22 episodes, aired from October 7, 2022, to May 19, 2023. Each episode runs for about 44 to 60 minutes and focuses on the challenges inmate firefighters face as they battle wildfires and navigate personal struggles in their quest for redemption.Fire Country is set in Northern California, one of the most wildfire-prone areas on the planet. Photo: @Fire Country on Facebook (modified by author)Source: FacebookWhat is the Fire Country plot?The Fire Country show follows the story of Bode Donovan, a young convict seeking redemption by participating in a prison firefighting program in his fictional hometown of Edgewater. Donovan teams up with elite firefighters and other inmates to put out massive, unpredictable wildfires across the region.Why is Fire Country filmed in Canada?Canada is considered the Hollywood North, thanks to its filming hotspots in Vancouver and Toronto. Filming in Canada is also considered cheaper than filming in the United States of America. The Vancouver area’s forests, rivers, and villages easily replicate the nature of Northern California, where the show is set.Read alsoWhere was Wednesday filmed? Revealing the show’s iconic locationsAbove is everything you need to know about where Fire Country is filmed. The American action drama series immerses audiences in a tale set against the backdrop of Northern California wildfires, primarily filmed in British Columbia.READ ALSO: Where was Mamma Mia filmed?Briefly.co.za published an article about Mamma Mia, a 2008 jukebox musical romantic comedy film written by Catherine Johnson, based on her book from the 1999 musical of the same name.The jukebox musical romantic comedy, launched in 2008, featured several breathtaking filming locations, including a few selected beaches in Greece. Discover some of the show’s filming locations. Source: Briefly News

Where else besides the brain are memories “stored”: scientists surprised with the results of the study

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During the study, It turned out that cells in other parts of the body are also capable of “remembering” and “learning.”
This was reported by URA-Inform with reference to T4.
Researchers from the New York University made a surprising discovery: memory can exist outside the brain. Until recently, it was believed that memory and learning were exclusively functions of the brain, but scientists have discovered that kidney tissue cells are capable of participating in memory processes.
During the experiments, the cells were exposed to chemical signals that mimic learning processes in the brain. It turned out that these cells activate a gene similar to the one responsible for memory in nerve tissue. Moreover, when the chemical signals were received at intervals, the cells learned information more effectively, which echoes with the well-known principle of “spaced repetition” in learning. 
This discovery expands our understanding of memory mechanisms and may become the basis for new approaches to treating diseases associated with cognitive impairment. Scientists suggest that various cells in the body have the ability to “remember”, and this knowledge can be used in the treatment of diabetes, cancer and other pathologies.
Recall that earlier it was reported that scientists managed to scan a sarcophagus without a hole : what secrets did they reveal?
Źródło informacji

Where else besides the brain are memories “stored”: scientists surprised with the results of the study

Twitter LinkedIn
During the study, It turned out that cells in other parts of the body are also capable of “remembering” and “learning.”
This was reported by URA-Inform with reference to T4.
Researchers from the New York University made a surprising discovery: memory can exist outside the brain. Until recently, it was believed that memory and learning were exclusively functions of the brain, but scientists have discovered that kidney tissue cells are capable of participating in memory processes.
During the experiments, the cells were exposed to chemical signals that mimic learning processes in the brain. It turned out that these cells activate a gene similar to the one responsible for memory in nerve tissue. Moreover, when the chemical signals were received at intervals, the cells learned information more effectively, which echoes with the well-known principle of “spaced repetition” in learning. 
This discovery expands our understanding of memory mechanisms and may become the basis for new approaches to treating diseases associated with cognitive impairment. Scientists suggest that various cells in the body have the ability to “remember”, and this knowledge can be used in the treatment of diabetes, cancer and other pathologies.
Recall that earlier it was reported that scientists managed to scan a sarcophagus without a hole : what secrets did they reveal?
Źródło informacji

Is Dulquer Salmaan going to play MK Thyagaraja Bhagavathar in his Tamil movie Kaantha?

Trigger Warning: This article contains references to death. Dulquer Salmaan is currently basking in the success of his film Lucky Bhaskar, directed by Venky Atluri. As the actor is set to appear in the lead role for the Tamil period flick Kaantha, it is being reported that the film will have him portraying MK Thyagaraja Bhagavathar, the first superstar of Tamil cinema.