Daily Archives: November 17, 2024

The ‘science’ of polling is broken

On Nov. 4, the day before the presidential election, the polling firm Research Co. released its final survey. Unsurprisingly, it concluded that “the battleground states remain closely contested.”In typically blue New Jersey, however, the survey showed Kamala Harris with a 17-point advantage. This was in line with other recent polls. A mid-October poll by Rutgers University’s Eagleton Center found Harris leading by 20 points. And why not? Biden, after all, won the Garden State in 2020 by nearly 16 percentage points.With the final votes still being counted, Harris’s margin in New Jersey is only 6 points, a double-digit difference from most of the polling data in that state in this cycle. Bergen County — a wealthy suburb just over the Hudson River from New York City — swung 13 points in Donald Trump’s direction.Pre-election polling failed to capture other equally profound political shifts around the country. Loudon County, Va., a short commute from Washington, D.C., and home to the country club wing of the government bureaucracy, swung nearly 10 points toward Trump. Miami-Dade — one of the last blue bastions in Florida — swung 20 points. Closer to home, Fall River turned from a reliably Democratic stronghold into one of the many New England towns we can now safely regard as Trump territory.You’d expect to see this kind of sea change reflected in the polls before the election. But we didn’t.Overall, polling in battleground states may have been marginally more accurate this year than it was in past election cycles. But the fact that polling this year missed the broader shift to the right reveals a more important truth: Polling as we’ve known it over the last century is irreparably broken. And like so many of our broken things, we don’t yet know how to replace it.The notion of gauging public opinion on anything — from support for fascism to whether people prefer Fluff over peanut butter — traditionally was based on one important thing: the random sample. It became a staple of political polling in 1936, when George Gallup used the method to contradict the conventional wisdom that FDR was headed for a historic defeat.“As recently as 1983, if you wanted to know what people thought, you made a thousand calls, conducted interviews with the six hundred who answered the phone, and were literally thirty minutes away from releasing the poll,” says Michael A. Bailey, a Georgetown University public policy professor and author of “Polling at a Crossroads: Rethinking Modern Survey Research.”The size of the sample alone virtually guaranteed a representative cross-section of America. “It’s amazing,” Bailey says: Surveys back then would be accurate on many levels, “down to including the right number of people with diabetes, even if they don’t know they have diabetes.”That was then; this is now. Decades of declining trust in institutions and the proliferation of spam across all our communication networks have led to an explosive growth in what pollsters call non-response bias, which simply means that the one person out of a hundred who does respond to an unknown caller on their cellphone is unlikely to be representative of most Americans. “By definition they’re weird, right?” says Bailey. “They’re literally one out of a hundred.”One paragon of the random sampling method — the highly respected Iowa pollster Ann Selzer — shocked politicos and thrilled Harris supporters by releasing a poll the weekend before the election indicating that Harris led Trump in Iowa by three points. Iowa had not voted for a Democrat for president since Barack Obama in 2012. Last week the state went for Trump by 13 points. Selzer was off by 16 points.When it takes a hundred calls to reach a single likely voter, random samples are neither random nor samples in any meaningful sense. Most polling firms have reacted to this challenge by using ever more elaborate models to “weight” the data they get from the people who respond. They construct representations of our diverse society by relying on data collected via Doodle polls and other online questionnaires and paid surveys. Modeling uses complex mathematical formulas to estimate one district’s political leanings based on factors such as its previous voting records, the demographic breakdown within that district, and how places with similar demographics have previously voted.In a polarized country that delegates its most consequential elections to a handful of states, these models were mostly focused on pinpointing the sentiments of the residents of these battlegrounds and ignoring the rest of us. Modeling with weighted samples worked great in 2008 and 2012 (while Gallup, still relying on random sampling, underestimated Barack Obama’s support by 9 percentage points). But modeling has had diminishing returns ever since.In this cycle most pollsters — chastened by their failures to predict the true level of Trump’s support in the last two cycles — weighted their results based on how respondents remembered previously voting. This led to the seemingly accurate results in the swing states because “these models basically said, ‘This vote will be like the last vote,’ and in some places that was more or less true but with a small tilt toward Trump,” notes Bailey.But that doesn’t mean polls told us an important and true story about America. That story was playing out, largely undetected, in Bergen County and Fall River and a thousand other locations. If you looked at nearly every poll and read coverage from across the political spectrum, you still had no idea that the Obama coalition of unions, urban professionals, and racial minorities had been rent asunder, a demographic earthquake that will require the party to rethink its basic purpose.“Right now the modeling, for all its sophistication, has a hard time detecting change,” Bailey says. “Polling is in need of a new paradigm.”The problem is that detecting change is precisely what we depend on polls to do. When they can’t, the world becomes a dimmer, less comprehensible place.Jeff Howe, a former contributing editor at Wired magazine, is an associate professor of journalism at Northeastern University. Ian Dartley, a freelance reporter and recent graduate of Northeastern’s master’s in journalism program, contributed research for this article.

Nolotil under the microscope: What is the science behind the infamous Spanish painkiller linked to multiple British deaths?

THIS is what science says about infamous Spanish painkiller Nolotil after being linked to multiple British fatalities.

In Spain, Nolotil (metamizole) is a trusted choice for moderate pain, particularly post-surgery and in cancer patients, as it’s stronger than ibuprofen yet considered relatively safe. 

However, for British and Irish visitors, this seemingly harmless remedy carries a deadly risk. While approved for use in Spain and a handful of other countries, Nolotil is outright banned in the UK, US, and 40 other countries due to its link to a rare but often fatal condition: agranulocytosis, an uncommon and potentially fatal drop in white blood cells that leaves the body vulnerable to deadly infections.

Over recent years, cases have surfaced of British and Irish tourists suffering severe reactions, and even fatalities, after taking Nolotil. 

Previous Olive Press reports have spotlighted several tragic cases, spurring calls for increased regulation.

Kathy Olson reflects on her legacy as she retires from Owensboro Museum of Science and History

After more than 17 years at the helm, Kathy Olson is stepping down as the CEO of the Owensboro Museum of Science and History, leaving behind a legacy rooted in storytelling, education, and community connection.

Olson has been involved with the museum since its inception in 1966. She said her journey with the institution began when she was just 11 years old. Her father was a General Electric employee and seashell enthusiast who volunteered at the museum when it was located on Sycamore Street.

“My dad loved the natural world, and our family vacations revolved around collecting shells,” Olson said. “That passion led to connections with the Smithsonian, where he had one of his discoveries cataloged. Those early experiences shaped my lifelong love for science and history.”

Olson’s professional career at the museum began in 1990 when she joined as a registrar and later became curator of collections. She was named interim director in July 2006 before assuming the role permanently in January 2007. During her tenure, Olson oversaw numerous expansions and initiatives, including the museum’s Noon Year’s Eve Family Celebration, a family-themed New Year’s Eve celebration.

“At the end of the day, museums are about telling stories,” Olson said. “For us, it’s about preserving the natural history of Western Kentucky and sharing Owensboro’s history. But it’s also about helping families create their own stories through our programs and exhibits.”

The museum has seen significant growth under Olson’s leadership, including new galleries, structural improvements, and increased community engagement. Recent upgrades funded by a $1.1 million appropriation from the Commonwealth of Kentucky have modernized the facility, with projects such as exterior painting, facade cleaning, HVAC upgrades, and elevator repairs underway.

Looking ahead, the museum’s board will launch a search for Olson’s successor. In the interim, board member Ed Allen, who previously served as director in the late 1990s, will assume the role.

“Ed’s experience and the dedication of our board will guide the museum forward,” Olson said. “I’m confident they’ll take the time to find the right leader to continue our mission.”

Although Olson is retiring from her leadership role, she isn’t stepping away entirely. She plans to work part-time, focusing on collections and educational programs. The reduced workload will allow her to spend more time with her family, including her two grandsons.

“This change allows me to reconnect with my roots at the museum while also being present for my grandkids,” Olson said. “Family is so important, and this feels like the right time to shift my focus.”

Reflecting on her career, Olson grew emotional as she acknowledged the mentors and colleagues who shaped her journey. She highlighted the late Sam Davenport, a former board chair and steadfast supporter of the museum, as one of many who made a lasting impact.

“The museum’s success has always been about teamwork,” Olson said. “It’s the combined efforts of staff, board members, and volunteers that make everything possible. I’m so grateful for their dedication.”

As Olson prepares to enter a new chapter, she hopes the museum will continue telling the stories of Owensboro for generations to come.

Where else besides the brain are memories “stored”: scientists surprised with the results of the study

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During the study, It turned out that cells in other parts of the body are also capable of “remembering” and “learning.”
This was reported by URA-Inform with reference to T4.
Researchers from the New York University made a surprising discovery: memory can exist outside the brain. Until recently, it was believed that memory and learning were exclusively functions of the brain, but scientists have discovered that kidney tissue cells are capable of participating in memory processes.
During the experiments, the cells were exposed to chemical signals that mimic learning processes in the brain. It turned out that these cells activate a gene similar to the one responsible for memory in nerve tissue. Moreover, when the chemical signals were received at intervals, the cells learned information more effectively, which echoes with the well-known principle of “spaced repetition” in learning. 
This discovery expands our understanding of memory mechanisms and may become the basis for new approaches to treating diseases associated with cognitive impairment. Scientists suggest that various cells in the body have the ability to “remember”, and this knowledge can be used in the treatment of diabetes, cancer and other pathologies.
Recall that earlier it was reported that scientists managed to scan a sarcophagus without a hole : what secrets did they reveal?
Źródło informacji

Where else besides the brain are memories “stored”: scientists surprised with the results of the study

Twitter LinkedIn
During the study, It turned out that cells in other parts of the body are also capable of “remembering” and “learning.”
This was reported by URA-Inform with reference to T4.
Researchers from the New York University made a surprising discovery: memory can exist outside the brain. Until recently, it was believed that memory and learning were exclusively functions of the brain, but scientists have discovered that kidney tissue cells are capable of participating in memory processes.
During the experiments, the cells were exposed to chemical signals that mimic learning processes in the brain. It turned out that these cells activate a gene similar to the one responsible for memory in nerve tissue. Moreover, when the chemical signals were received at intervals, the cells learned information more effectively, which echoes with the well-known principle of “spaced repetition” in learning. 
This discovery expands our understanding of memory mechanisms and may become the basis for new approaches to treating diseases associated with cognitive impairment. Scientists suggest that various cells in the body have the ability to “remember”, and this knowledge can be used in the treatment of diabetes, cancer and other pathologies.
Recall that earlier it was reported that scientists managed to scan a sarcophagus without a hole : what secrets did they reveal?
Źródło informacji