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What’s the story
Climate scientists have deemed the global target of limiting temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius as unachievable.
As world leaders convene at Cop29 in Baku, experts anticipate that 2024 will surpass this threshold, marking the hottest year on record.
Leading research groups corroborate that three out of five expect a temperature rise of at least 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.
Climate warning
Paris Agreement’s 1.5 degrees Celsius target impractical, warns experts
Despite the Paris Agreement’s goal to keep long-term temperature rise below 1.5 degrees Celsius, scientists now warn that this target is no longer feasible.
Zeke Hausfather from Stripe and Berkeley Earth stated that the goal of avoiding a temperature rise of 1.5 degrees Celsius is effectively unattainable, describing it as being “deader than a doornail.”
He emphasized the need to curb rising emissions to prevent further global warming.
Rising temperatures
Climate Analytics warns of a 2.7 degrees Celsius increase
Last year’s shocking heatwave has led to a lot of soul-searching among climate scientists, with high temperatures continuing to persist even as the El Nino effect fades.
Sofia Gonzales-Zuniga from Climate Analytics said that even if the current pledges are met, the world is on the path to a 2.7 degrees Celsius increase.
This rise in temperature threatens severe climate impacts and further highlights the urgency of tackling global warming.
Climate action
UN Secretary-General urges swift action at Cop29
At the Cop29 conference, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres urged world leaders to act swiftly against the planet’s ongoing “masterclass in climate destruction.”
However, the 1.5 degrees Celsius target now seems more rhetorical than feasible without major advancements in carbon removal technologies.
NASA‘s Gavin Schmidt expressed skepticism about reaching this target but acknowledged its motivational impact on reducing emissions and mitigating warming effects.
Political impact
Potential Trump return could hinder climate efforts
The possible return of Donald Trump to power could further stall climate efforts, possibly adding 0.04 degrees Celsius to global temperatures, the Climate Action Tracker report said.
Despite the challenges, progress in clean energy provides some hope compared to pre-Paris Agreement projections.
Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo noted progress in climate policy over the past decade at Cop29, but fears of triggering irreversible climate tipping points remain.
Climate risks
Climate tipping points loom, warns UK Met Office
Grahame Madge of the UK Met Office highlighted the escalating risks of irreversible climate tipping points, such as Amazon deforestation and polar ice sheet collapse.
He described these thresholds as looming dangers that must not be underestimated.
Zeke Hausfather reinforced the urgency of action, stressing that even slight temperature increases significantly affect the climate.
He underscored the uncertainty of pushing the climate system beyond its historical stability, describing it as venturing into unknown and potentially perilous territory.
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