Fourth in a 10-part series of columns from the West Kootenay Climate Hub.
This year will be the hottest year on record globally. Locally, we experienced a brutally hot summer, with 13 days over 35 C in July alone in Nelson, compared to an average of two for 1991-2020.
How do we know this? From meticulous data collected in our region and across the world and carefully analyzed by scientists. The data unequivocally show that pollution from burning fossil fuels is trapping heat in our atmosphere and oceans, and destabilizing the relatively safe climate since the dawn of agriculture 10,000 years ago.
These scientists come from many fields, including meteorology, oceanography, geology, chemistry, physics, ecology, fire science and health.
Their research is mostly funded publicly and by competitive grants from large and small institutions. They publish their findings in peer-reviewed scientific journals, meaning the work is critically examined by others who are knowledgeable in the field before editors decide if it’s worth publishing.
The consensus is overwhelming — with over 99 per cent of scientific papers agreeing that humans are causing climate change, according to peer-reviewed research like a 2021 article in Environmental Research Letters.
Climate scientists’ average annual base salary — for people with postgraduate degrees — is $76,000, according to glassdoor.ca. That’s just $3,200 more than the average Canadian. For contrast, according to CBC, the total 2022 compensation of an oil and gas CEO in Canada ranged from $425,255 to $16.6 million. Whose opinion is more likely to be motivated by the almighty dollar?
Scientists build on a knowledge base going back over 150 years, with the first study connecting carbon dioxide to climate warming from 1856. Today, sophisticated models accurately predict the global heating we’ve already seen and point to scary and uncertain times ahead, as climate pollution continues to increase and remains in the air for centuries.
Climate is based on long-term trends, but weather can only be predicted accurately a couple weeks out at best. So while these models aren’t able to predict individual extreme weather events, the relatively new field of climate attribution science can quickly sort out random weather from the impacts of climate change. For example, the deadly 2021 heat dome in BC was “virtually impossible” without human-caused climate change, according to World Weather Attribution.
A lot of scary changes can happen relatively quickly as we flirt with tipping points — things like melting ice caps, permafrost and glaciers, disrupted ocean circulation, and forest die-offs. Such changes are irreversible in human time scales.
Local climate scientists like Dr. Mel Reasoner and Greg Utzig help local governments and businesses understand what to expect in the decades to come: continued hotter and drier summers, warmer and wetter winters, less predictable growing seasons and extreme weather events. Wildfires will continue to intensify. Forests may not be able to grow back after fires because of extreme heat and drought.
This is heartbreaking because it impacts so much of what we love about living in the Kootenays. Picture our beautiful mountains with no forests thanks to runaway climate change, making the forest protection efforts of so many local people meaningless.
Scientists tell us that what we choose to do in this decade will dramatically affect whether our local climate stabilizes in the second half of this century or continues to get hotter (see BasinClimateSource.ca). Children born today will be in the prime of their lives then. Rapidly shifting from damaging fossil fuel pollution to cleaner energy and transportation has everything to do with our kids’ future.
How does it feel to be a scientist staring into the void of a dystopian future while decades of warnings go unheeded?
“I find it increasingly difficult to be optimistic about the world we are leaving for our kids and that breaks my heart,” shares Reasoner. “I have been struggling with this on a personal level.”
“The science is concerning, but it’s the lack of meaningful response by human society that’s depressing,” says Utzig. “Time is running out.”
Climate scientists who’ve been sounding the alarm for years have been ruthlessly attacked and threatened online by fossil fuel interests because solutions will drastically impact their bottom lines. This type of treatment isn’t just inhumane and unacceptable; it’s delaying action at a time when it’s absolutely essential.
We owe these scientists deep gratitude for their hard work, and it’s high time we take heed of what they are saying so we can help protect the places we love in the Kootenays. It’s not too late to keep this beautiful home livable for our kids.
Laura Sacks lives in rural Castlegar, has a science background and focuses her time on climate advocacy. She is also a mother concerned about her kids’ future.
This post was originally published on here
