Researchers have revolutionized atmospheric studies with JAGUAR-DAS, a new system that merges observational data with numerical models to explore the atmosphere up to the lower edges of space.
Spanning nearly two decades, this dataset could enhance climate models and improve weather forecasting, while opening doors for collaborative research between atmospheric and space scientists, potentially altering how we understand the Earth-space interaction.
Groundbreaking Atmospheric Research
Researchers at the University of Tokyo have developed a groundbreaking dataset that spans the entire atmosphere, opening the door to studies in regions that were previously difficult to explore. Using an innovative data-assimilation system called JAGUAR-DAS, which integrates numerical modeling with observational data, the team compiled nearly 20 years of atmospheric data. This dataset covers multiple atmospheric layers, from ground level to the edge of space.
By analyzing how these layers interact vertically and globally, scientists hope to improve climate models and enhance seasonal weather forecasts. The data also provides opportunities for collaboration between atmospheric and space scientists, offering new insights into how space and our atmosphere interact to impact life on Earth.
Complaining about the weather — and blaming forecasters when predictions fall short — is a common pastime. However, predicting the weather is no simple task. The atmosphere is a complex, interconnected system with multiple layers, and climate change is making it even harder to predict both long-term trends and sudden, extreme weather events.
Launch of JAWARA: A New Atmospheric Dataset
To help overcome these increasing challenges, researchers have created a dataset of the entire atmosphere. Ranging from September 2004 to December 2023, it spans multiple levels of the atmosphere from ground level up to the lower edge of space, about 110 kilometers above Earth’s surface. The region between about 50 km to 110 km (though exact ranges vary) is particularly of interest, as it is so notoriously difficult to study that it had previously been dubbed the “ignorosphere.”
This region is too low for satellites and too high for weather balloons to observe, resulting in a shortage of data and consequently research. However, it is a fascinating area, characterized by vast global atmospheric tides and small-scale gravity waves that affect wind and temperature. It also plays an important role in the intensity of the impact of space weather events.
Our weather is influenced by many factors, at ground level (such as mountains and human activity), interactions in our atmosphere, and space (such as auroras and magnetic fields). Credit: Kaoru Sato
Insights and Opportunities from the New Dataset
“The JAWARA (JAGUAR-DAS Whole neutral Atmosphere Reanalysis) dataset is a strong research tool which, for the first time, makes it possible to quantitatively understand atmospheric general circulation and the hierarchal structure of waves and vorticies in the mesospheric layer (which is above the stratosphere and about 50-90 km above Earth’s surface) and lower thermospheric layer (about 90-110 km above Earth’s surface) of the atmosphere, including the ignorosphere,” explained Professor Kaoru Sato from the University of Tokyo.
“If we can better understand these layers, it would improve our ability to respond to climate change, extend the lead time of seasonal forecasts, and advance our understanding of space weather phenomena.”
Advancing Atmospheric and Space Science
The team developed its new JAGUAR-DAS high-speed data assimilation system as part of an international project led by Sato. The system integrates observational data into a numerical model which can then produce data on atmospheric conditions. The resulting dataset, named JAWARA, makes it possible to perform detailed analysis of the general circulation of the atmosphere and its hierarchical structure.
“Atmospheric general circulation models which range up to the lower edge of space have only been developed by a limited number of research institutions around the world, including our own,” said Sato. “Recent studies indicate that extreme stratospheric phenomena can start at least in the upper mesosphere. Therefore, quantitative elucidation of phenomena in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere is extremely important for weather forecasting.”
The dataset is now openly available, and the team intends to use it to study the large-scale circulation and the hierarchical structure in the atmosphere, as well as vertical and interhemispheric (i.e., between the Northern and Southern hemisphere) couplings. They also hope to work in collaboration with space scientists to study the interactions between the atmosphere and space, particularly the mesosphere (where the highest clouds form) and ionosphere (located within the thermosphere and about 60-300 km above Earth’s surface, where many satellites are based).
Reference: “The JAGUAR-DAS whole neutral atmosphere reanalysis: JAWARA” by Dai Koshin, Kaoru Sato, Shingo Watanabe and Kazuyuki Miyazaki, 10 January 2025, Progress in Earth and Planetary Science.
DOI: 10.1186/s40645-024-00674-3
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