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Scientists at a university in the UAE have identified the climate conditions that trigger extreme summer heat in the Arabian Gulf — a discovery that could help predict dangerous marine heatwaves months in advance and protect fragile ecosystems such as coral reefs and fisheries.
A new study by the Mubadala ACCESS Center at NYU Abu Dhabi explained why some Gulf summers become significantly hotter than others, pushing sea temperatures to levels that can cause mass coral bleaching and disrupt marine life.
Researchers highlight that the findings could allow authorities to anticipate extreme conditions two to three months ahead, giving valuable time to prepare. As climate change increases the frequency and intensity of extreme weather, the study underlines the growing importance of local, data-driven forecasting tools to safeguard biodiversity, fisheries and coastal communities across the Arabian Gulf.
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What makes Arabian Gulf the warmest sea on Earth?
The Arabian Gulf is already the warmest sea on Earth during summer, and while marine species are adapted to high temperatures, unusually warm years can overwhelm even resilient ecosystems. Until now, the drivers behind these extreme heat events were not fully understood.
Using decades of observations combined with advanced ocean modelling, the researchers found that marine heatwaves occur when two major wind systems shift at the same time.
The region’s northwesterly Shamal winds weaken, while the Indian summer monsoon strengthens. This combination increases atmospheric moisture over the Gulf, trapping heat at the ocean’s surface and driving sea temperatures higher.
The study also links the hottest Gulf summers to large-scale climate patterns. Extreme warming is more likely during La Niña events — when the tropical Pacific Ocean cools — and when the North Atlantic Oscillation enters a weaker phase, altering storm tracks over the Atlantic. When both patterns align, the Gulf experiences its most intense marine heatwaves.
“The study reveals something surprising,” said NYU Abu Dhabi Senior Scientist and lead author of the study Zouhair Lachkar. “Unlike other oceans, where marine heatwaves are often caused by clear skies and intense sunshine, the Gulf’s extreme sea temperatures happen under humid, hazy conditions. And while El Niño usually drives heatwaves elsewhere, here it is La Niña that favours them.”
Researchers say the findings could significantly improve early-warning systems for the region, allowing scientists and policymakers to act before damage occurs.
“Our findings have important implications for predicting extreme heat events weeks to months before they occur,” said Co-director of the Mubadala ACCESS Center and senior author of the study John Burt. “This gives marine managers and decision makers advance notice to monitor and protect vulnerable ecosystems such as coral reefs. This aligns with our goal at Mubadala ACCESS of producing regionally relevant research that has global impact.”
