This post was originally published on here
ArmInfo. Yerevan appears consciously ready to sacrifice its own economic interests
for a public display of loyalty to new political centers of gravity,
as noted by political scientist Vahe Davtyan in his article.
According to him, one of the most symbolic “results” of 2025 has been
the sharp decline in trade turnover between Armenia and Russia.
However, in reality, we are talking about a return to a natural,
organic level. The illusion of double-digit growth was maintained
not through a structural economic transformation, but through a
re-export function driven by geopolitical circumstances. This model
was never a product of internal development, but a byproduct of
external pressures. “Today, Yerevan is consciously prepared to
sacrifice its own economic interests for the sake of a public
demonstration of loyalty to new political centers of gravity.
However, the authorities’ calculations here are clearly incorrect: it
was precisely the economic growth of recent years that ensured the
relative legitimacy of the political regime. While the economy was
growing, social contradictions were frozen. Now, with the shift away
from Moscow, stagnation is becoming inevitable, paving the way for a
predictable domestic political crisis. In this context, the “cold”
realism of former US Ambassador to the OSCE Dan Baer is indicative.
According to him, Armenia should prepare for several cold winters on
its path to ending “dependency.” This is a convenient formulation,
especially if these winters are planned to be overcome at the expense
of the resources and patience of other nations. However, the numbers
are not metaphorical. Trade turnover between Armenia and the Russian
Federation has decreased from $12.4 billion to $6 billion, and
imports from Russia have decreased by 58%. The role of a re-export
hub was not lost automatically: it was transferred under direct
pressure from the EU and the US, within the framework of “sanctions
compliance requirements,” the political scientist noted. Vahe Davtyan
emphasized that the economic base is once again reminding itself of
this. Or will inevitably do so in the near future.
It should be noted that, according to the RA Statistics Committee,
trade turnover between Armenia and Russia for the first 10 months of
2025 amounted to $5.72 billion, a decrease of 47.8% compared to the
first 10 months of 2024. Meanwhile, exports from Armenia decreased by
9.2% to $2.38 billion, while imports from Russia, as an exporting
country, amounted to $3.48 billion-a decline of 58.3%.
