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After the Toronto Film Festival last year yielded the highest-grossing fest acquisition ever at the box office with Obsession ($512 million worldwide), and with the arrival of a new market, the million-dollar question heading into this year’s TIFF that kicks off Thursday is whether there will be a spike in independent feature sales.
There’s a mix of great promise, and also a harsh reality.
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Let’s start with the debbie-downer news.
Despite what’s bound to be a record post-Covid year at the domestic box office with a potential $10 billion (alongside the best summer we’ve ever seen at $4.76 billion), small and mid-sized independent features aren’t sure bets at the box office, or in the awards race. Yes, there are diamonds in the rough, but the Obsession effect is largely felt to be an anomaly.
Many have pointed to the pandemic for slaughtering a number of independent cinemas, but let’s face it, even with streaming easing, the format has made moviegoers more discerning about what’s worth their attention and dollars outside the home. Some believe those theaters that have closed weren’t even worth $20M at the box office.
What’s changed in the streaming era and post-Covid are booking patterns. Exhibitors no longer have the patience to give indie films a full-schedule two-week run in order for realize word of mouth. It takes a powerful arthouse distributor such as A24, Neon, Focus Features or Searchlight to muscle the strength of a potential awards or adult holdover (a la A24’s Sundance pickup The Invite, which grossed more than $55M worldwide). Quite often indie pics are on split schedules. Furthermore, if a movie (any movie) isn’t doing $3,000-$4,000 a screen in a weekend, that screen is in serious jeopardy.
Most of the evening primetime slots at TIFF this year at Roy Thomson Hall, the Princess of Wales and Royal Alexandra Theatre aren’t occupied by major studio or streamer titles like the days of yore. Instead, there are a plethora of indie sales titles (scroll down for our hot list of those). In years past, evening primetime slots were tee-offs for studios’ award contenders: think 20th Century Fox’s The Martian, Netflix’s Frankenstein and Roma, Focus Features’ The Danish Girl, Universal’s Green Book and The Fabelmans, Warner Bros’ The Joker and A Star Is Born… the list goes on.
This year there is Apple’s Being Heumann, which is opening the fest tonight, and Amazon MGM Studios’ anticipated I Play Rocky from Green Book director Peter Farrelly on Saturday night. In 2018, Green Book won TIFF’s highest prize, the People’s Choice Award, which has a history of being an Oscar bellwether.
While sellers salivate over a film being fast-tracked into awards season upon acquisition — TIFF has a history for this with such titles as The Wrestler selling to Searchlight, Still Alice selling to Sony Pictures Classics, and I, Tonya to Neon — the reality of the situation is it’s a hard needle to thread. Black Bear took the Sydney Sweeney boxing title Christy off the sales-market table a year ago and decided to make the pic its first U.S.-distributed theatrical release. Haste made waste at the box office; it grossed less than $2M stateside after its early November bow. In addition, coming out of Venice and into TIFF, Searchlight jumped on Mona Fastvold’s Shaker origin period title The Testament of Ann Lee, which didn’t shake up any Oscar noms or church collections with $2.5M domestic.
The new market does take some pressure off buyers: There’s no rush to release a finished movie into awards season especially if it receives a hot reaction. Moreover, a seller doesn’t need to worry about sour reviews slowing a sales auction.
For all of the movies acquired out of TIFF in the past, there were also often other secret seller screenings for buyers, and big sales percolating. Case in point: the $30M global sale orchestrated by CAA Media Finance and Miramax in 2022 for Alexander Payne’s The Holdovers, which wound up being a serious Oscar frontrunner with five noms, including Best Picture, scoring a Supporting Actress win for Da’Vine Joy Randolph.
“We were already treating Toronto like a market,” one seller says.
This year, the TIFF market runs alongside the festival from today through September 16 at the Metro Toronto Convention Centre. It count some 150-plus exhibitors with an advisory committee that includes CAA Media Finance co-head Roeg Sutherland, Mubi SVP Global Distribution Arianna Bocco, Sony Pictures Classics co-founder and co-president Michael Barker, and more. The idea is to provide a vital pit-stop for foreign sellers to get a movie financed in time to roll cameras by early Q1.
Says one indie label boss: “Calendar-wise, it make sense a lot of sense to have the TIFF market. One of the frustrations out of [November’s American Film Market] is that by the time you did presales to finance a project, those contracts aren’t signed and I can’t actually go to bank. I can’t do anything until later next year. Whereas in Toronto, you can spend your fall putting your finance plan together and boom go into production at the start of January.”
The notion is that AFM would then become the pit-stop for closing contracts on projects that launched at TIFF.
Other good vibes at this year’s market: financier Black Bear is looking to acquire finished projects. Sumerian surprised with its buy of Channing Tatum drama Josephine at Sundance, so sellers are curious about its future endeavors. Warner Bros’ genre label Clockwork is looking for the right buy; specifically titles that can make $15M-$20M at the domestic box office. We’re hearing that Paramount+ and Peacock (the latter looking for fare to appeal to the Bravo audience) are ready to jump into the fray as a pay-one provider and partner with theatrical distributors who need them. For too long, Hulu has been the one-stop pay-one shop on several indie acquisitions.
One minus among some sellers this edition is that TIFF now has a reduced Press & Industry screening schedule due to the market eating into showings. Previously, titles received two P&I screenings; now it’s just one. “But that could also force some buyers to go to public screenings,” says one agency seller, looking at the bright side.
With that, below are some hot titles to look out for at this year’s TIFF. Note, the list only includes films that are up for sale and playing in the festival’s official selection. Not listed are Venice hot titles not playing at TIFF, i.e., the Luc Besson-written Father Joe, Kornél Mundruczó’s Place to Be starring Ellen Burstyn, Taika Waititi and Pamela Anderson; the Casey Affleck-directed Company, and the late Bernardo Bertolucci co-written pic The Echo Chamber starring Alicia Vikander, Luca Marinelli and Susan Sarandon.
TIFF Hot List 2026
(all times ET; photos courtesy TIFF)
ALPHA GANG — Following their hot Sundance title Sasquatch Sunset, David and Nathan Zellner arrive in the Great White North with a sci-fi comedy about alien invaders, hellbent to conquer Earth, but in the form of a 1950s biker gang. Those getting leathered up are Léa Seydoux, Dave Bautista, Kelvin Harrison Jr, Lily-Rose Depp, Doona Bae, Riley Keough, Chris Pine and Cate Blanchett. CAA Media Finance is selling U.S.; mk2 is handling foreign. World premiere: Sunday, September 13, 9:30 p.m. at Princess of Wales
BUCKING FASTARD — Werner Herzog’s first narrative feature in seven years bottles up Rooney and Kate Mara and shakes them up as Jean and Joan Holbrooke, “two sisters who dress the same, sort of look the same, and often say the same things at the same time. This we learn in the opening scenes, which find them in court as the defendants in a highly unusual court case,” writes Deadline’s Damon Wise in his review. The pic is already 72% fresh out its Venice premiere. Gersh is handling U.S. sales. Premiere: Monday, September 14, noon at TIFF Lightbox
CLOSING NIGHT — American Horror Story franchise thespian Cody Fern makes his feature directorial debut with a story about an internationally renowned movie star (Sarah Paulson) who invites her estranged family to the opening night of her Broadway play after decades of silence, and old wounds resurface almost as quickly as old habits. Her emotionally fragile sister (Naomi Watts) remains determined to hold on to a lifetime of resentment, while her nephew (Toby Wallace) sees an opportunity to forge a relationship with his famous aunt. Pic also stars Dianne Wiest and Odessa A’zion. CAA Media Finance is selling US.; mk2 is handling foreign. Premiere: Saturday, September 12, 2:45 p.m. at Princess of Wales
EVIL GENIUS — Courteney Cox’s second feature as a director is produced by Jason Bateman and Michael Costigan and follows the infamous “pizza bomber” case exploring deception, desperation and the blurred line between victim and villain. Along for extra pepperoni in this comedy crime caper are David Harbour, Patricia Arquette, Michael Chernus, Garret Dillahunt, Ryan Eggold, Gregory Alan Williams, Tom McCarthy, Owen Teague, Harlow Jane and Danielle Macdonald. Sales agents are Arregate Flims and August Night Pictures. Premiere: Saturday, September 12, noon at Roy Thomson Hall
THE FACE OF HORROR — The TIFF Midnight Madness movie comes from Viva genre filmmaker Anna Biller, who has adapted the Japanese ghost story Yotsuya Kaidan into a Technicolor 14th-century England gore tribute. In the pic, a ghost in medieval England rises from her grave to seek revenge on her husband. Jonah Hauer-King, Kristine Frøseth, Ellie Bamber, Leo Suter, Ben Radcliffe and Bella Heathcote star. WME Independent is selling U.S.; Embankment is handling international. Premiere: Friday, September 11, 11:59 p.m. at the Royal Alexandra
GIRL GROUP — After her feature directorial debut Debs, Rebel Wilson returns to TIFF with this pic about a washed-up former pop star who is kicked out of her own girl group’s reunion and sentenced to court-ordered community service. She seizes the chance to stage a comeback by coaching a group of misfit teen girls for a major record label audition… only to push them too far, forcing her to confront the toxic industry that made her and the self-destruction she can’t escape. Wilson stars with Randall Park and Lilah Pate. UTA Independent Film Group is handling U.S. sales. Premiere: Friday, September 11, 5:30 p.m. at Roy Thomson Hall
THE HOUSEWIFE — Ben Shirinian’s feature debut stars Naomi Watts, Tye Sheridan, Michael Imperioli, Luke Evans, Lena Olin and Debi Mazar in a story about a New York Times journalist who tracks down a potential Nazi officer living secretly in Queens. When he befriends the suspect’s elegant and charming wife, the implications of his investigation become much more unsettling. CAA Media Finance is selling U.S.; Neon International is handling foreign. Premiere: Thursday, September 10, 8:45 p.m. at Royal Alexandra
THE IDIOT(S) — Co-directed by Polish filmmaker Małgorzata Szumowska and DP Michał Englert, the movie follows newlyweds Fyodor Dostoevsky (Johnny Flynn) and Anna (Aimee Lou Wood) on their European honeymoon, which leads them to Baden. The trip turns into an unexpected and explosive years-long stay as they struggle and overcome obstacles in pursuit of Fyodor writing his masterpiece The Idiot. Vicky Krieps and Christian Friedel also star. CAA Media Finance is selling U.S.; the Match Factory is selling foreign. Premiere: Tuesday, September 15, 9:30 p.m. at Princess of Wales
THE JULIA SET — Chase Infiniti’s big feature follow-up after One Battle After Another has her cast as Julia, a talented mathematician working in a competitive academic environment. She is recruited by T.A. Pascal into an elite prep course for the world’s most challenging math competition, the Putnam Exam. Evan Wood filmmaker Niki Byrne writes and directs. Gersh is selling U.S. Premiere: Friday, September 11, 6:15 p.m. at Princess of Wales
THE LIFE AND DEATHS OF WILSON SHEDD — The feature written and directed by Tim Blake Nelson is based on actual events: When a teacher in an abusive marriage takes a job leading creative writing classes at a maximum security prison, she begins to fall for a charismatic inmate. The consequences call into question not only the nature of punishment and retribution but also the limits of our humanity. Amanda Seyfried, Scoot McNairy, Wunmi Mosaku, Devyn Tyler, Missi Pyle, Grant Harvey, William Jackson Harper and Nelson star. WME Independent is selling U.S. co-repped with D Squared Films; WestEnd is handling foreign. Premiere: Sunday, September 13, 9:30 p.m. at Roy Thomson Hall
MAGAZINE — An intern at an elite magazine navigates sex and power in the cutthroat New York magazine world of 2011. Lily McInerny, Jake Lacy, AnnaSophia Robb and Lukita Maxwell star in the pic from from journalist-turned-filmmaker Alexandra Pechman, who has written for Vogue, New Yorker, Vanity Fair and the New York Times. UTA Independent Film Group is selling U.S.; Film Constellation is selling foreign. Premiere: Friday, September 11, 12:15 p.m. at TIFF Lightbox
ONWARDS & SIDEWAYS — From John Madden, who directed the seven-time Oscar winner Shakespeare in Love, the pic stars Laura Linney and Rhys Ifans as strangers whose lives become entwined when both are diagnosed with Parkinson’s disease. Rory Kinnear and Monica Dolan also star. CAA Media Finance is selling U.S.; Kaleidoscope reps foreign. Premiere: Sunday, September 13, 2 p.m. at Roy Thomson Hall
PRIMA FACIE — Suzie Miller adapted her play for the big screen. It follows a rising star lawyer in London who represents sexual assault defendants. After she is raped by a colleague, she finds herself at the center of a patriarchal legal system she often controlled. Cynthia Erivo stars and produces under her Edith’s Daughter label. Pic also stars Daniel Ings, Noma Dumezweni, Toheeb Jimoh, Elizabeth Dulau, Harry Treadaway, Khalid Abdalla, Elliot Levey, Simon Russell-Beale and Sarah Junillon. UTA Independent Film Group is co-repping U.S. with CAA Media Finance; Embankment is handling foreign. Premiere: Sunday, September 13, 5:45 p.m. at Roy Thomson Hall
ROGUE TROOPER — Moon filmmaker Duncan Jones arrives with this adult animation about a genetic infantry soldier accidentally dropped behind enemy lines in the midst of a secret military operation. Aneurin Barnard, Jack Lowden, Daryl McCormack, Reece Shearsmith, Matt Berry, Jemaine Clement, Diane Morgan, Hayley Atwell and Sean Bean are the voice cast. CAA Media Finance is handling U.S. Premiere: Saturday, September 19, 11:59 p.m. at Royal Alexandra
THE SURGEON — The action thriller written and directed by Roshan Sethi, from John Wick producer Thunder Road, follows a former surgeon who is kidnapped and given an impossible choice. Sethi co-created the Fox series The Resident. Michelle Yeoh stars alongside Martin Freeman, Laurie Davidson, Yuri Kolokolnikov and Joseph Mydell. WME Independent is selling U.S.; Legendary 193 is selling foreign. Premiere: Saturday, September 12, 8:30 p.m. at Royal Alexandra
TRASH MOUNTAIN — The dark comedy from director Kris Rey produced by Jurassic World filmmaker Colin Trevorrow follows a young gay man living in Chicago who returns to his hometown in Missouri following the sudden death of his hoarder father. Caleb Hearon, Zooey Deschanel, Jacki Weaver, Jaboukie Young-White, Kyle Marvin and Holmes star. CAA Media Finance and WME Independent are co-repping U.S; WME is also handling foreign. Premiere: Friday, September 11, 6:15 p.m. at Scotiabank 1
UP AGAINST IT — From British actress-turned-director Trudie Styler, “post-marital acrimony and parental devotion make strange bedfellows” for a divorced couple whose daughter develops a rare form of leukemia. The doctors tell them that their best bet at saving her is to produce a second child who could provide a transfusion. The ex-spouses balk at the idea — and their new partners don’t fancy it either — but they may have no choice but to bury the hatchet (in bed). Antonio Banderas, Forest Whitaker, Úrsula Corberó, Eva Birthistle, Arinzé Kene and Eden Hamilton star. CAA Media Finance is selling U.S.; Beta Cinema has foreign. Premiere: Thursday, September 17, 5:30 p.m. at Roy Thomson Hall
VINTAGE VIOLENCE — From The Code director Eugene Kotlyarenko, the Midnight Madness title stars Cole Sprouse as a disgraced live-streamer who discovers a trove of rare vintage denim in a Colorado mine. He follows it to Tokyo — and straight into the arms of a woman who may be using him. Caught between desire and betrayal, he finds himself entangled in black market turf wars, yakuza, and a past that refuses to stay buried. Kiko Mizuhara, Nijiro Murakami, Pierre Taki and Hio Miyazawa also star. WME is handling U.S. sales; Best Friend Ever has international. Premiere: Saturday, September 12, 11:59 p.m. at Royal Alexandra
