Despite the adjustment of election boundaries, this past weekend’s provincial election shows Nanaimo remains a New Democratic “stronghold,” according to one political scientist.
“I think the results here are really interesting and suggests that Nanaimo is still a solid NDP territory and we weren’t sure about that going into the election,” said Michael MacKenzie, Vancouver Island University’s Jarislowsky Chair in trust and political leadership. “Why that is the case is still open for speculation.”
On Sunday, Oct. 20, the province’s initial ballot count was concluded, with Elections B.C. expected to administer the final count between Oct. 26-28 before a winner can be declared.
The initial count showed an B.C. NDP minority government with 46 seats, with the B.C. Conservatives taking 45 seats and Greens two.
The final count includes absentee and mail-in ballots, and will also involve a recount for ridings that had fewer than 100 ballots’ difference, as is the case in the B.C. NDP victories in Juan de Fuca-Malahat and Surrey City Centre.
Nanaimo-Lantzville, Nanaimo-Gabriola and Ladysmith-Oceanside all went orange, ranging from about 41.2 per cent of the vote in Ladysmith-Oceanside to 52.5 per cent in Nanaimo-Gabriola.
With the changing of election boundaries ahead of the vote, it left experts to speculate on Nanaimo results.
“Some people thought the riding boundary changes might make a difference this time, and the results suggest that hasn’t been the case,” MacKenzie said. “The NDP was much stronger in Nanaimo-Lantzville than a lot of people thought they would be, and in Ladysmith-Oceanside.”
In his speculation about what caused the voters to cast their ballots the way they did, MacKenzie believes experience may have had an impact.
“I think the NDP ran some very experienced candidates in these ridings, candidates who are experienced and very, very good at what they do.”
Sheila Malcolmson, who won the Nanaimo-Gabriola riding, was previously elected MP in 2015 for the federal Nanaimo-Ladysmith riding, before turning to provincial politics, becoming an MLA in 2019 and then a cabinet minister.
Stephanie Higginson, who won Ladysmith-Oceanside, was elected twice to the Nanaimo-Ladysmith school board, and was president of the B.C. School Trustees’ Association.
George Anderson, who won the Nanaimo-Lantzville riding, is a commercial lawyer and a former member of Nanaimo city council.
“I think these candidates presented themselves well to the voters, they know what they’re doing and they did it well. I think that had to have played into it, on some level.”
The B.C. Green Party received the fewest votes in the three ridings, and MacKenzie said there has been a suggestion that the Green vote collapsed in Nanaimo.
“There has been a question as to why,” MacKenzie said. “In the past, Nanaimo has supported Green candidates, federally we elected Paul Manly and historically the area has had strong Green support, strong NDP support and strong Conservative support but in this election the Greens didn’t poll particularly well in any of the ridings, in fact they did a lot less well in Nanaimo-Gabriola than I expected them to do.”
MacKenzie posited that it could mean people’s priorities have shifted away from Green issues or it could have been a matter of strategic voting.
“I think some Green supporters may have been persuaded to vote NDP because they were worried that John Rustad’s Conservative Party may have been worse for the environment,” the professor said. “I think that might have been difficult for some of them because Eby said he would revoke the carbon tax if the federal policy requiring provinces to have them was removed.”
MacKenzie believes B.C. United merging with the Conservatives bolstered that party, but it also created fewer options for voters, exaggerating polarization.
“It meant that some people really didn’t have a place to vote that they felt comfortable with, people in the centre-right who care a lot about fiscal responsibility, for example, but not about these culture war issues Rustad is taking about. I think there’s more people like that than the results would suggest,” he said. “Some of them put their vote for Conservatives, even if they didn’t feel 100-per cent comfortable with all their policies, and some maybe didn’t vote at all. I don’t know, we don’t have the data for that but I do think these are some of the consequences of that decision.”
Across the province, MacKenzie said the result of the election was one that nobody was happy with.
“It doesn’t look like a great election for anybody and it’s a really divided province at this point and we’re going to be in for a period of political uncertainty.”
Nanaimo-Gabriola
Sheila Malcolmson, B.C. NDP – 14,085 votes, 52.45%
Dale Parker, B.C. Conservatives – 9,386 votes, 34.95%
Shirley Lambrecht, B.C. Green Party – 3,381 votes, 12.59%
Nanaimo-Lantzville
George Anderson, B.C. NDP – 14,613 votes, 51.4%
Gwen O’Mahony, B.C. Conservatives – 11,341 votes, 39.89%
Lia Versaevel, B.C. Green Party – 2,474 votes, 8.7%
Ladysmith-Oceanside
Stephanie Higginson, B.C. NDP – 13,423 votes, 41.18%
Brett Fee, B.C. Conservatives – 11,678, 35.82%
Adam Walker, independent – 5,335, 16.37%
Laura Ferreira, B.C. Green Party – 2,162, 6.63%
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