If Republican Donald Trump will win the US elections, he will not be able to end Russia’s war against Ukraine in 24 hoursas he promised in his election speeches Because it will be very, very difficult to reach an agreement and the main problem will be the Kremlin dictator. Vladimir Putin.
A political scientist shared the corresponding opinion Vladimir Fesenko in an interview with OBOZ.Talk. He drew attention to the impact of the American elections on the situation in our country.
“If Trump wins the US elections – and I talked to one Western journalist, she joked (but, unfortunately, this is serious) that there are two options in this election: either Trump wins or Trump does not recognize the election results“This, by the way, will also be a problem for us,” Fesenko said.
In the case of the second option, there is a risk of crisis, internal confrontation in the United States, and prolongation of the situation. This will create problems for America, for us, for Taiwan, and for the international situation.
If Trump is elected head of the United States, then, with a high probability, he will first informally, informally try to initiate negotiations to end the war.
“But then the questions begin,” the political scientist noted.
At one time – before officially taking office – Trump will have the status of president-elect, that is, he will not have an official mandate to negotiate.
“But nevertheless […]To whom will he give this function – to negotiate? With Putin and with us. About the end of the war. This is a problem. A lot depends on this.
Under what conditions can he propose to end the war? I’ll venture a guess. At least two conditions. This is the end of the war along the front line (what is called a freeze). And the second condition – it already concerns us – is the refusal of Ukraine’s membership in NATO. And here it doesn’t matter whether we agree or not – Trump will say,” the expert predicted.
“I I fully assume, with a very high probability, that Trump can initiate negotiations, but there will definitely not be peace in 24 hours and it is not a fact that there will be peace in 24 weeks. Because reaching an agreement will be very, very difficult, very difficult, and the main problem will be Putin.“, he emphasized.
Fesenko recalled that recently another aggressive post from Dmitry Medvedevformer Russian President, and now Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation
“And there were, of course, such offensive statements addressed to Kamala Harrisbut there was also a certain aggression shown towards Trump. And even those, you know, veiled threats – however, there can be different interpretations. Medvedev wrote that JFK’s fate may await Trump if he proposes a quick peace – the murdered American president… Trump, by the way, may not like this,” the political scientist noted.
Fesenko suggested that if the Russian Federation refuses Trump’s conditions, then the Republicans can continue to help Ukraine, but in the Lend-Lease format, that is, a loan. Because Trump “counts money” and will be against gratuitous support from Kyiv.
“By the way, under Trump there is a risk of reducing assistance to Ukraine, at least macroeconomic,” he noted.
“But if Putin is too capricious and does not want to make concessions, does not want to accept Trump’s peace plan, indeed, there is a possibility that there may be a gesture of increasing support for Ukraine. Exactly how much can be done – I don’t dare to predict now, because it can be different. I think that it is not clear what the United States can do in this direction,” the political scientist admitted.
There is also an interesting option being discussed in the Trump team, and even the presidential candidate himself once said about it – collapse the price of oil.
“How effectively it will be implemented is another matter – I’m not sure about that. Well, it won’t work out soon. It’s not like that.”
But nevertheless, the fact that such an idea is being discussed is, firstly, warning to Russians: they say, if you resist, you say “no, we won’t accept, you accept our conditions,” well, we also have the opportunity to put pressure on you, and we will do it. This is a warning—for now a warning—to the Russians. Well, if not, then yes, Trump will be forced to act against Russia,” Fesenko believes.
He recalled the paradox: Trump sincerely sympathizes with Putin, wants to come to an agreement with him, but when the Kremlin dictator does not agree, Trump is forced to take steps to protect US national interests. This was the case when he was president.
“And despite Trump’s desire to come to an agreement with Putin, relations between the United States and Russia are deteriorating under Trump. And they are deteriorating significantly. This is such a paradox,” the political scientist noted.
As OBOZ.UA reported:
– On Tuesday, November 5, the 60th presidential election in US history will take place. The fight is between Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump.
– As of November 4, the average odds in bookmaker ratings were 56% for Trump and 42.9% for Harris.
We have only verified information in our Telegram channel OBOZ.UA and Viber. Don’t be fooled by fakes!
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