Britain might be beginning to feel the winter chill, but 2024 is now ‘virtually certain’ to be the hottest year on record.
According to the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), the average temperature in the first 10 months of the year has been 0.16°C (0.29°F) higher than 2023.
It means 2024 is sure to surpass 2023 as the hottest year on record globally.
And as temperatures look likely to outstrip last year’s record-breaking highs, 2024 is on course become the first year 1.5°C above the pre-industrial average.
Samantha Burgess, deputy director of C3S, says: ‘After 10 months of 2024 it is now virtually certain that 2024 will be the warmest year on record and the first year of more than 1.5ºC above pre-industrial levels.
‘This marks a new milestone in global temperature records and should serve as a catalyst to raise ambition for the upcoming Climate Change Conference, COP29.’
What’s more, last month was the second hottest October on record, coming in just behind 2023 with an average global temperature of 15.25°C (59.45°F).
At 1.65°C above pre-industrial levels, October marks the 15th month in a 16-month period when temperatures have been above targets set out in the Paris Agreement.
C3S’s observations come from analysis of the ERA5 dataset which contains billions of measurements taken from ships, aircraft, satellites, and weather stations around the world.
Together, these provide a reliable and accurate estimation of the monthly temperature average around the world.
These show that October 2024 was the second hottest October globally and the fifth hottest on record in Europe.
Temperatures were particularly hot over Central and Western America, Canada, Japan and Australia.
In Japan, abnormally high temperatures left the iconic peak of Mt Fuji snowless for the longest period since record-keeping began 130 years ago.
While snow normally settles on the mountain by October 5, the peak remained bare this year until the start of November.
This follows the hottest summer on record as global temperatures across June, July, and August rose 0.69°C (0.24°F) above average.
C3S found that August 2024 had been the joint hottest August on record, as global average temperatures soared to 16.82°C (62.28°F), triggering widespread drought and dangerous heatwaves.
And in the 12 months from November 2023 to October 2024, the average surface temperature had been 0.74°C (1.33°F) above the average for 1991-2020.
Additionally, that period has been 1.62°C (2.91°F) above the average for 1850-1900, the period used by scientists as a benchmark for the pre-industrial era.
This means that 2024 is almost certain to be hotter than record-breaking 2023 which included the hottest summer in 2,000 years.
Worryingly, C3S now predicts that 2024 is also virtually certain to reach 1.55°C above the pre-industrial average.
This is a concern because in 2016, 28 countries signed the Paris Agreement, thereby committing to keep global temperature increases below 1.5°C.
The famous pact was intended to mitigate the worst of the impacts of human-caused climate changed and prevent irreparable damage to the environment.
In previous years, individual months have exceeded the limit set by the Paris Agreement.
However, 2024 would be the first year that the global average surface temperature for the entire year has been more than 1.5°C above the pre-industrial average.
As warming temperatures increase the risk posed by extreme weather patterns, these findings have sparked concerns about the threat posed by climate change.
1.5°C has come to be seen as a threshold beyond which the worst impacts of climate change-driven heatwaves, droughts, floods, collapse of natural systems and rising sea levels will be felt.
This month, Spain was rocked by the deadliest climate disaster in the country as flash flooding swept through the Valencia region.
Scientists say that there is ‘no doubt’ that these explosive downpours were made worse by human-caused climate change.
Mike Childs, head of science, policy, and research at Friends of the Earth, says: ‘Our ailing planet is sending us every signal that it is in crisis – the latest being the deadly floods in Spain which have claimed the lives of so many and wreaked colossal damage.’
Mr Childs added: ‘The time for dither and delay is long gone.
‘We need global leaders to smash the emergency glass now and do everything in their power to prevent further harm.’
Concerns are particularly high about the growing possibility of ‘mega hurricanes’ triggered by warming oceans.
Warmer air contains more energy and can hold a greater quantity of moisture, so this not only makes storms more common but increases their destructive power.
Scientists widely agree that areas such as Florida are at an increasing risk of extreme weather due to warmer temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico where Atlantic hurricanes generally form.
The latest C3S report also reveals the average surface sea temperature for October 2024 (another metric that measures heat close to the ocean’s surface) was 20.68°C (69.22°F).
This is second-highest surface sea temperature value on record for the month, and only 0.10°C (0.18°F) below the one recorded for October 2023.
Additionally, rising temperatures have also triggered a reduction in the global coverage of sea ice.
C3S found that sea ice reached its fifth lowest extent for October at 19 per cent below the average.
In Antarctica, the sea ice extent fell to its second-lowest level on record for the month at 8 per cent lower than average, only just behind levels in 2023.
Recently, an international group of scientists have warned that an influx of freshwater from melting sea ice could destabilise a critical set of ocean currents including the Gulf Stream.
If this system of currents were to collapse it could plunge Europe into a ‘new Ice Age’ and flood large parts of America’s Atlantic coast.
Mr Childs adds: ‘With the UN climate talks looming, the UK must bring in stronger plans for delivering on our climate and nature targets, as well as a credible strategy to prepare us for the extreme weather and wider effects of climate change that are already baked in.’
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