The world’s ability to combat climate change is at risk due to “vague” net zero accounting rules, warn scientists behind the concept of net zero. Speaking as global leaders meet for UN climate talks in Azerbaijan, experts cautioned that relying on Earth’s natural carbon sinks, such as forests and oceans, to offset emissions could lead to dangerous global warming levels.
Myles Allen, a lead scientist at Oxford University and key developer of net zero science, highlighted the problem of double-counting carbon absorption, noting that natural carbon sinks cannot be used to offset both historical and future fossil fuel emissions.
Countries like Russia and the EU have begun counting their natural carbon sinks in their net zero plans, potentially masking actual emissions reductions. This could lead the world to mistakenly believe it’s on track to limit warming to 1.5°C, while instead exceeding 2°C.
Allen and his colleagues propose a shift to geological net zero, requiring every tonne of fossil fuel emissions to be matched by a tonne of carbon dioxide permanently removed from the atmosphere. Achieving this goal depends on scaling up carbon capture technologies, which currently handle just 0.1% of emissions.
The warning comes as carbon emissions are predicted to reach record highs in 2024, potentially marking the hottest year in recorded history.
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