Scientists on January 10 confirmed that 2024 marked the first full year in which global temperatures surpassed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. This milestone, confirmed by the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), highlights that climate change is driving temperatures to unprecedented levels for modern humans.
According to C3S, the average global temperature in 2024 was 1.6°C higher than in the 1850-1900 period, commonly known as the pre-industrial era, before large-scale fossil fuel use. Last year’s temperatures surpassed the previous record set in 2023, continuing an upward trend.
This increase crossed the critical 1.5°C threshold set by the 2015 Paris Agreement, as confirmed by the European Commission’s Copernicus Climate Service, the UK’s Meteorological Office, and Japan’s weather agency.
Samantha Burgess, Copernicus’ strategic climate lead, attributed the record temperatures to the accumulation of greenhouse gases from burning coal, oil, and gas. She added that the past decade has seen the hottest temperatures on record, likely the warmest in the last 125,000 years.
The hottest day recorded in 2024 occurred on July 10, with a global average temperature of 17.16°C (62.89°F), according to Copernicus data.
Experts agree that the primary driver of these record temperatures is the burning of fossil fuels, although a temporary El Niño warming event in the central Pacific and an undersea volcanic eruption in 2022 also played a role. The volcanic eruption contributed to temporary cooling by releasing reflective particles and water vapor into the atmosphere.
‘Urgent need for action’
Marshall Shepherd, a meteorology professor at the University of Georgia, warned that these extreme temperatures are signaling an urgent need for action. “This is a warning light going off on the Earth’s dashboard,” Shepherd told Phys.org. “We still have a few gears to go,” he added, citing weather events like Hurricane Helene, flooding in Spain, and wildfires in California as clear signs of the climate shift.
According to a reports, climate-related disasters caused $140 billion in losses globally in 2024, making it the third-highest amount on record, with North America suffering significant damage.
The impacts of climate change are now visible on every continent, affecting people from the richest to the poorest countries on earth.
Wildfires raging in California this week have killed at least 10 people and destroyed thousands of homes. In 2024, Bolivia and Venezuela also suffered disastrous fires, while torrential floods hit Nepal, Sudan and Spain, and heatwaves in Mexico and Saudi Arabia killed thousands.
While 2023 had also briefly exceeded the 1.5°C threshold, scientists emphasised that the 1.5°C goal represents a long-term average over 20 years.
Currently, global warming since the pre-industrial era is at 1.3°C, making it clear that the world is edging dangerously close to breaching the limits set by the Paris Agreement. Victor Gensini, a climate scientist at Northern Illinois University, pointed out that surpassing the 1.5°C mark — even for a single year — signals how close we are to those critical limits.
A 2018 UN study showed that limiting warming to 1.5°C could prevent the extinction of coral reefs, mitigate massive ice sheet loss in Antarctica, and reduce human suffering.
Burgess noted that it is increasingly likely that Earth will exceed the 1.5°C threshold, but she stressed the importance of the Paris Agreement, urging countries to stay committed to it.
More warming likely
Looking ahead, climate models suggest that 2025 may not be as hot as 2024, partly due to a cooling La Niña phase following last year’s El Niño. However, the first six days of January 2025 were already the hottest start to a year on record, according to Copernicus data.
While scientists are divided on whether global warming is accelerating, Carlo Buontempo, director of Copernicus, observed that ocean heat content is rising at an increasing rate, which could indicate accelerating change.
Climate change is also worsening storms and torrential rainfall across the world, because a hotter atmosphere can hold more water, leading to intense downpours. The amount of water vapour in the planet’s atmosphere reached a record high in 2024.
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