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Like Frank Sinatra once crooned, “It was a very good year.”
The book on the 2025 hurricane season closed Sunday with no hurricanes making landfall in the U.S. for the first time since 2015, something that has happened just seven times in 25 years.
The last time Florida went a year without a hurricane landfall was 2021, although three tropical storms (Elsa, Fred and Mindy) hit the Panhandle area that year.
More remarkably, not a single hurricane formed in the Gulf.
So, was the region just lucky or was there some actual science to it?
A little bit of both, according to Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather’s Lead Hurricane Expert, who spoke to Islander News while looking out at the snow from the home office in State College, Pa.
Alex DaSilva.
“There was so much wind shear in the Gulf and a lot of dry air,” he said.
The biggest factor that helped curve a dozen storms back into the Atlantic was the Bermuda-Azores High, a high-pressure area that sits over the middle Atlantic all year, but is more prevalent in the tropical season.
“The Bermuda High, which steers the storms, was weaker and farther east,” DaSilva said. “It didn’t allow the tropical waves coming off of Africa (to reach Florida, the Gulf or the East Coast). It allowed the storms to ride along the western periphery of the Bermuda High instead. Had it been farther west or stronger, maybe it could have forced one into Florida and the Gulf.”
The closest scare Key Biscayne had this season was with Imelda, but that storm was swept away by the rare “Fujiwhara effect,” in which a second, larger, close in proximity storm (Humberto) actually carried Imelda away by literally swapping places as a sweeping front also helped.
The last time the “Fujiwhara effect” took place was in 2016 with Matthew and Nicole.
“Those two storms were pretty far apart,” DaSilva said. “This year, they were much closer, so the effect was stronger, positive for us.”
Hurricanes were ‘feast or famine’
Looking back at the big picture, DaSilva called it a “pretty average” hurricane season, but also one that was “unusual.”
There were 13 named storms (14 is the average), with five becoming hurricanes (seven is the average). Four of those storms became major hurricanes (three is the average).
“We saw three Category 5 hurricanes and that was the second most ever,” DaSilva said, noting there were four in 2005. “It was almost feast or famine with this year’s storms. Only five did make it to hurricane status, but the ones that did went all the way. Four of the hurricanes were majors (111 mph or more). Only Imelda was a Cat 2.
“There was a lot of wind shear in the (Atlantic) basin and a lot of dry air, so (many of them) struggled. There were some pockets where the shear was lower, like Melissa (which had a wind gust of 252 mph and crushed Jamaica), and they were able to intensify, and they exploded.”
NOAA’s hurricane season outlook predicted 13-19 named storms, 6-10 hurricanes and 3-5 major hurricanes.
Looking ahead to 2026
What’s in store for the coming year?
DaSilva said when the transition went from El Niño to La Niña late in the hurricane season is what helped Melissa intensify.
“There is typically less wind shear in La Niña conditions, so I was surprised we didn’t see any (formations) in November,” he said. “Last year, we had three named storms in November. Typically, there is one storm every year. It just provides for more favorable development chances with La Nina.”
El Niño and La Niña are opposing climate patterns in the Pacific Ocean that cause significant changes in weather around the world, influencing everything from hurricane activity to temperature and precipitation in specific regions.
Steering currents. and even Sahara dust storms, play critical roles in where those storms go and how much they intensify.
“In 2026, we’ll probably start in a neutral pattern, but it’s a little early to say what phase,” DaSilva said. “Usually, it favors a neutral phase in late winter and I could see that persist to the beginning of hurricane season.
“That’s before El Niño would maybe suppress the second half of the season next year. Some models show an El Niño year and, typically, those yield less storms in the basin. El Niño increases the (wind) shear. The concern is that the waters are so warm in the Atlantic and that could overcome El Niño, so it can kind of counterattack.”
The last full El Niño season was in 2023, which was very active with 20 named storms.
“There were only three major hurricanes, probably because of the wind shear,” DaSilva said. “Before that, you’d have to go all the way back to 2018-19 to find an El Niño year.”
Speaking of history, Florida had escaped a hurricane strike for 10 consecutive years, from 2005 (Wilma) to 2014.
“It’s always possible to see a streak like that, but the waters are warmer now,” DaSilva said. “To go a streak that long would be extremely unlikely. At times, certain areas of the country are hit more often.
“Sometimes, it’s the luck of the draw, or not luck … five or six years ago, the northern Gulf always was getting hit, and then there are periods when the northern Gulf is spared. It’s hard to say (if that 10-year streak) was flukey. A lot of it comes to the timing.”
So, what’s the bottom line?
“It’s not a perfect science,” DaSilva said. “We just don’t want people to let their guard down.”
