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A “permanent” blanket of snow across Estonia has never been a rule as early on in the winter as December, professor of climate sciences and head of the Estonian meteorological society Piia Post said.
At the same time, winters as a whole are becoming less snowy, Post noted.
Speaking to “Hommik Anuga” Sunday, Post was cautious about the prospects of a white Christmas this time around. There is just a week and a half to go, and average temperatures above zero are forecast even at night for the rest of this work week.
“In the long-term forecast, a cold December was promised for Europe, but it has still not arrived,” she said, adding nevertheless that there is still time.
Post said the image of December as always being a snowy month belongs more to the realm of childhood recollections than scientific fact.
What also needs dispelling is the idea that a hot summer is always followed by a cold winter. Or in the case of 2025, a mild winter will automatically follow the poor summer.
Seasons cannot “remember” things, she noted.
“The global system does not remember what kind of winter or summer we had here,” Post said.
The formation of a permanent snow cover in Estonia, climatologically speaking, begins rather at around the turn of the year, she noted, to the extent that it is even reflected in meteorologists’ work schedules.
“We never carry out the meteorology practical course in the autumn semester, that is, before the New Year. There is a significantly smaller likelihood that snow will settle at all before the New Year,” Post went on.
One of the main variables in Estonian winters is where air masses are coming from at any given time, and these can give temperature ranges of up to 40 degrees.
“On exactly the same date across some years it can be -27 or -30 degrees. Then in another year, on the same date almost +10 degrees,” she noted.
All of this is a normal fluctuation in temperature for Estonia.
This is not to say climate change is not having its effect on winters, particularly on snowfall.
“If we look in connection with climate change, then this type of winter where we have no snow is becoming more and more common,” she noted.
Milder winters bring a whole range of downsides including “pathogens that used to die in winter due to the cold [which] no longer die,” and effects on ecology and the environment.
Globally, some places are becoming too warm to support human populations, she added.
By the end of the century, the global average temperature may, according to Post, rise by about 2.4 degrees compared with the pre-industrial era, she noted.
Regarding coastal areas and sea-level rise, Post said earlier large forecasts have since been reassessed.
“At the moment, the rise of the Baltic Sea is projected at somewhere around half a metre by the end of the century,” she noted, stressing that storm-related temporary rises remain particularly dangerous.
Post said people in the past avoided building directly on the coast because strong winds and storms could destroy or carry away entire homes.
She cited the 2005 Pärnu flood, noting that mostly newer buildings were affected, highlighting the value of historical experience in construction choices.
The “Hommik Anuga” interview also touched on weather forecasting and folk wisdom of the red sky at night, shepherd’s delight variety, with Post noting that some natural signs can indeed indicate short-term weather changes.
