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By Kemo Kanyi
A political science lecturer at the University of The Gambia, Mr. Biran Gai, has said that any opposition coalition formed ahead of the 2026 presidential election without the United Democratic Party (UDP) would largely favour the ruling National People’s Party (NPP) in retaining power.
Speaking in an interview with The Voice, Mr. Gai said an objective analysis based on electoral history, voting patterns, and party organisation shows that a coalition excluding the UDP would be electorally weak and strategically beneficial to the NPP.
He noted that despite the existence of several political parties in The Gambia, presidential elections have increasingly taken the form of binary contests, citing the 2021 presidential election as a clear example. President Adama Barrow, running on the NPP ticket, secured 457,519 votes, representing 53.2 percent, while UDP candidate Ousainou Darboe obtained 238,253 votes, or 27.7 percent. All other opposition candidates combined failed to reach 20 percent of the total votes cast.
According to Mr. Gai, the figures demonstrate that even when aggregated, the fragmented opposition remains numerically inferior to the incumbent’s electoral coalition.
“The UDP remains the central axis of opposition politics,” he said, adding that the party’s control of some of the most politically and economically significant local government councils highlights its strong grassroots presence and organisational capacity.
He further argued that the NPP’s 2021 electoral performance reflected not only popularity but also the structural advantages of incumbency in Gambian politics, including access to state visibility, patronage networks, and alliance-building, which have historically translated into electoral success.
Mr. Gai cautioned, however, against portraying the NPP as politically invulnerable, noting that public dissatisfaction with the Barrow administration was growing. He pointed to economic stagnation, high youth unemployment, rising poverty levels, persistent corruption, and delays in constitutional and governance reforms as factors eroding public confidence.
“These grievances create political openings that a credible opposition could exploit,” he said, while stressing that political opportunity alone does not guarantee electoral victory without strategic coherence.
“In sum, the idea of a viable coalition without the UDP is not merely optimistic; it is analytically indefensible. Such an arrangement would serve less as a vehicle for regime change and more as a stabilizing force for the incumbent,” Mr. Gai argued.
He also warned that it would be politically naïve for the UDP to assume its electoral strength remains unchanged, citing internal divisions and the emergence of splinter groups, notably the United for Change Movement (UMC) led by Talib Ahmed Bensouda, as factors that have reduced the party’s numerical dominance.
Mr. Gai concluded that a united opposition anchored by the UDP, guided by a clear leadership structure and driven by a coherent policy message, would significantly alter the political landscape and present the most serious challenge yet to NPP dominance.
