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The COP30 summit held in Belem, Brazil, endorsed the Belem Political Package. The agreement represented a shift in international climate policy as the world finally recognised the rapid transformation occurring in the mountain ecosystems. The COP decided to convene a dedicated United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) dialogue on mountains and climate change in June 2026 in Bonn, Germany.
The decision is expected to shape climate actions in the mountainous regions for decades. For the first time, mountains gained formal space in several negotiation outcomes. This is a milestone, and it reflects a recognition of the growing scientific consensus that the regions are undergoing rapid and irreversible climate change-induced transformations.
This global recognition creates an opportunity for Nepal, a small Himalayan nation. The upcoming Bonn Dialogue and the inclusion of mountain-focused papers in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Seventh Assessment Report offer a platform to ensure science-backed Himalayan realities are at the forefront of global climate discourse.
The Belem Adaptation Indicators established under the Global Goal on Adaptation provide a new framework for Nepal to measure and report its resilience gains with scientific credibility. However, these international opportunities will only get tangible benefits if Nepal moves beyond general pleas for help and invests in a climate science ecosystem. By strengthening the ability to generate factual evidence and science-informed databases, we can secure a strong position in global forums. The evidence-based data will guide Nepal in its domestic decision-making in addressing climate change issues.
Scientific evidence has already confirmed that the Himalayan region is warming faster than the global average. This has led to visible and alarming impacts on glacial retreats and the formation of glacial lakes, and increasingly erratic rainfall and precipitation. Even if the world succeeds in limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, the Hindu Kush Himalaya region is projected to lose approximately one-third of its glaciers by 2100. These shifts are consistent with our understanding of how climate change amplifies mountain hazards. We are seeing heavy rainfalls and landslides in places with no recorded history of disaster events. Traditional water sources are drying up, and heatwaves are becoming more frequent. These events are urgent warning signals that must be examined through factual analysis rather than through simple judgment-based attribution of all impacts to climate change.
Nepal’s ability to respond to these threats is currently constrained by a lack of ‘finer’ science. The Himalayan region represents the world’s most complex landscape, where geography dictates the local climate. We have limited data, sparse monitoring in difficult mountain terrains and difficulty in capturing fine-scale variations like temperature, rainfall, snowfall, snowpacks, soil moisture and winds that can change dramatically over short distances. Therefore, relying on broad models leads to a significant gap in understanding local risk. A kilometre-scale high-resolution regional climate modelling, improved hydrological simulations and multi-hazard and integrated risk assessments under different warming scenarios, including temporary global overshoot of 1.5 degrees Celsius, are essential tools for understanding local risks in the present context.
The shift towards science-based information is not merely an academic preference. It is a mandatory requirement for accessing international climate finance. International climate funds require scientific justification for any proposals regarding adaptation, resilience and loss and damage. We should be clear that climate finance is no longer awarded solely on the basis of vulnerability; it depends on solid scientific evidence. So, high-resolution climate information gives evidence-based justification for the resources it needs.
Moreover, the lack of detailed projections in climate-related variables creates uncertainty in domestic planning. Climate-resilient infrastructure, watershed restoration, agricultural adaptation and early-warning systems—all require accurate projections of how hazards evolve at the local scale. We also lack a clear understanding of how monsoon extremes might shift between different districts. Without these specific insights, national policy does not remain proactive. Infrastructure investments in roads, bridges and hydropower plants will remain vulnerable to destruction because they are not designed with local future climate realities in mind. Science-based policymaking is mandatory to reduce the impact and long-term losses.
An emerging issue for Nepal is climate attribution science. As disasters intensify, policymakers and negotiators should know the science-backed data. They need to know exactly how much human-induced climate change contributed to a specific flood, heatwave or extreme rainfall event. Event attribution quantifies how climate change alters the likelihood of an extreme event occurring. Impact attribution will assess how much of the resulting economic damage, agricultural loss or infrastructure failure can be directly linked to those climate-induced changes. These tools are a central part of climate negotiations on loss and damage. If Nepal can scientifically prove the link between global emissions and its local disasters, its claim for international compensation and support becomes indisputable.
Science must also move beyond academic journals and reach the local communities and governments that need it most. Local planning for water and spring restoration, slope stabilisation projects and resilient livelihood programmes must all be guided with scientific evidence to reduce long-term vulnerability. For this, a governance reform, i.e., strengthening scientific capacity as a core administrative priority rather than a peripheral research activity, is necessary. The country must invest in cultivating a new generation of climate experts who are specialising in fields such as cryosphere science, atmospheric physics or hydrology. The path forward also involves expanding its meteorological and hydrological monitoring networks, integrating satellite data with local observations and improving data accessibility. Nepal has ample opportunities to create science-backed evidence and data to present in the upcoming global forum and in climate change assessment reports.
Scientific leadership will determine whether global recognition results in real support or remains a missed opportunity. Nepal has the opportunity to build a climate-resilient economy and safeguard its precious mountain ecosystems. In a warming world, the future of the country’s development depends on how effectively it can harness science to guide action across every level of society. The time to invest in finer climate science is now.
