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A standing-room-only crowd attended last night’s Chincoteague workshop meeting, where town leaders and visiting scientists outlined growing concerns about coastal erosion at the island’s southern end and the widening of the Chincoteague Inlet.
The primary focus of the workshop was a detailed presentation by Dr. Chris Hein, a coastal geologist, and Dr. Ioannis Georgiou, a hydraulic modeler, both affiliated with the Water Institute. The scientists presented years of research on the geological history of Chincoteague, Assateague, and Wallops Islands, explaining how natural barrier-island processes are driving today’s erosion challenges.
Dr. Hein proposed that erosion along southern Chincoteague is not caused by local harbor activity or development, but by large-scale, long-term geological forces. He explained that Chincoteague Island exists because of Assateague Island’s growth over thousands of years, and that current erosion is likewise tied to Assateague’s continued southward extension.
Historical maps and satellite imagery showed how a feature known locally as “Fishing Point” once partially sheltered the inlet. As that hook eroded and migrated south, the inlet widened and reoriented, allowing more ocean energy to enter Tom’s Cove and strike Chincoteague’s southern marshes directly.
“This is one of the most dynamic coastal systems in the country,” Hein said, noting that Virginia’s barrier islands experience some of the fastest rates of relative sea-level rise in the United States.
Dr. Georgiou followed with results from a computer-based inlet and wave model developed for the town. Using high-resolution bathymetric surveys, tidal data, and wave measurements, the team simulated conditions from the 1980s and compared them with modern-day configurations.
The findings showed that, even with the same offshore wave conditions, today’s wider inlet allows significantly more wave energy to reach the southern shoreline. Model results indicated higher and more widespread waves entering the bay, particularly during southerly swells and storm events.
“These aren’t just visual differences,” Georgiou explained. “The energy is measurably higher, and that energy translates directly into erosion.”
During an extended question-and-answer session, residents raised concerns about flooding, storm surge, beach nourishment to the north, and long-term risks to infrastructure such as Memorial Park, the causeway and the harbor.
The scientists explained that a wider inlet can allow greater volumes of water to move in and out during storms, worsening “wind-tide” flooding even during otherwise normal tidal cycles. While computer models can simulate storm scenarios, both presenters cautioned that uncertainty increases the further projections extend into the future.
When asked about potential solutions, Hein stressed that scientists’ role is to explain causes, not prescribe policy. However, he acknowledged that shoreline armoring, such as reinforced riprap revetments, is one proven option to protect critical infrastructure in high-energy environments—though such projects are costly and often require state or federal assistance.
Several speakers noted that any effective response will likely be expensive and beyond the means of a small, rural community acting alone. Town manager Mike Tolbert concluded the evening saying that the scientific findings presented will help strengthen the town’s case when seeking outside funding and technical support.
As one resident summarized, “We didn’t just hear that erosion is happening—we learned why, how fast it’s changing, and what’s at stake.”
