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A study published in the journal One Earth warns that our planet may be dangerously close to a climatic “point of no return,” a threshold that could trigger nearly irreversible global warming and transform Earth into a “greenhouse” world. The analysis explains that several climate regulators, including the Greenland ice sheet, Antarctica, permafrost, and the Amazon rainforest, could face severe consequences.
Scientists note that these effects would occur once certain “tipping points” are reached, potentially accelerating global warming. Examples include the release of carbon trapped in permafrost, the loss of reflective ice, which leaves darker surfaces exposed to absorb more heat, and disruptions to major ocean currents such as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation.
“Today, global temperatures are as warm as, or warmer than, any period in the last 125,000 years and it is likely that carbon dioxide levels are higher than at any time in at least the past two million years,” the study states.
“Uncertain tipping thresholds make precaution essential, as crossing them could commit the planet to a hothouse trajectory with long-lasting and potentially irreversible consequences.”
Although the Paris Agreement set a goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above preindustrial levels, global temperatures have recently exceeded that threshold for 12 consecutive months, coinciding with record breaking heat, wildfires, floods, and other extreme events.
Researchers acknowledge that, despite decades of study, recent climate events have caught scientists off guard. They believe these processes may be early signs of a potential “greenhouse trajectory,” a scenario in which self-reinforcing feedback loops push the climate system beyond a point of no return, committing the planet to substantially higher long-term temperatures even if emissions are reduced later.
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