Early current-quarter App Store data is promising for Apple’s key growth business
App Store sales are off to a strong start in Apple ‘s current quarter, which bodes well for a major growth driver expected to eclipse $100 billion in a fiscal year for the first time ever. The news Revenue from the App Store in the first 65 days of Apple’s fiscal second quarter grew 14% to $6.1 billion versus the same period a year ago, Bank of America said Wednesday, citing SensorTower data. A big driver of the boost was productivity apps as OpenAI’s ChatGPT saw daily active users nearly triple year over year. App Store feeds into the tech giant’s ever-growing, high-margin services business, which BofA expects to grow 13% in fiscal 2025, above the FactSet consensus estimate for an 11.9% increase to $107.60 billion. Following better-than-expected fiscal first-quarter services sales, Apple forecasted current quarter growth for the segment in the low double digits year over year. Services revenue has soared nearly 80% from fiscal 2020 to $96.17 billion in fiscal 2024. Given the App Store’s robust fiscal Q2 start, the BofA analysts said their full-year 2025 services revenue estimates “could end up as conservative.” In other words, they may have to raise their numbers. Looking ahead, the analysts said Apple’s recent announcement that its streaming service, Apple TV+, will be available on rival Android should help drive full-year services revenue, too. “This can help increase subscription revenue in the long-term by making Apple TV+ more readily available and convenient to view on the Android installed base, which is much larger than the [Apple’s] iOS installed base,” BofA wrote. In Wednesday’s note, Bank of America maintained its Apple buy rating, citing “stable cash flows, earnings resiliency and potential beneficiary of AI use on edge devices.” The analysts kept both their estimates and stock price target of $265 unchanged. AAPL YTD mountain Apple (AAPL) year-to-date performance Big picture In recent years, Apple’s services unit has become a more important part of the company’s bottom line. In fiscal 2024, it accounted for nearly 25% of companywide revenue of $391.04 billion. In its fiscal 2025 first quarter, reported on Jan. 30, Apple services revenue rose roughly 14% to $26.34 billion. “[The] services business in general in aggregate is accretive to the overall company margin,” Apple CFO Kevan Parekh said during the company post-holiday quarter earnings call. The Bank of America note comes amid a rocky year for Apple shares though. The stock has lost nearly 6% year to date versus the S & P 500’ s decline of less than 1%. The megacap stock dropped Monday and Tuesday after Bloomberg reported on Sunday that Apple’s conversational AI version of Siri may not reach customers before 2027. Apple shares continued to tumble early Wednesday as the market dragged on uncertainty regarding President Donald Trump ‘s tariffs and escalating global trade war. However, Apple stock reversed higher along with the S & P 500 after Trump gave U.S. automakers a one-month reprieve from his 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico. That boosted sentiment on Wall Street. White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt said the president was open to additional tariff exemptions. Bottom line Apple’s services unit has been a big reason why we’re upbeat on the stock. It’s a high-margin business with a steady stream of recurring revenue largely due to subscriptions. In fact, Jim Cramer recently described it as one of Apple’s “best sources of growth.” That’s, in part, because Apple has a closed ecosystem and a consistently growing installed device base. Services strength has also helped offset iPhone sales softness amid an increasingly competitive global smartphone market. To be sure, slowing iPhone sales growth has nothing to do with device quality. Although bearish reports regarding its delayed AI offerings may have spooked investors earlier this week, Apple has a track record of producing the best, most innovative products. “Historically, Apple has been slower in bringing new technology to market because it prioritizes getting it right the first time,” Jeff Marks, the CNBC Investing Club’s director of portfolio analysis, said Monday. “They only release products or features when they’re confident they will be well received.” That’s why we continue to maintain our “own it, don’t trade it” thesis on Apple stock. (Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust is long AAPL. See here for a full list of the stocks.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. 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App Store sales are off to a strong start in Apple’s current quarter, which bodes well for a major growth driver expected to eclipse $100 billion in a fiscal year for the first time ever.
