The local business community has united again over a ballot question, this time over the future of the MCAS exam. But will that unity be enough to stop Question 2?As Election Day approaches, business leaders risk a repeat of the 2022 vote on the so-called millionaires tax. Then, as now, they argued that a ballot question backed by the powerful Massachusetts Teachers Association would hurt the state’s economic competitiveness. While that debate centered on taxes for the wealthy, the upcoming vote on Question 2, businesspeople say, risks undermining what is arguably the state’s biggest selling point to many companies and employees: the quality of its public schools.In the fight two years ago, teachers’ unions easily outspent business interests and won a narrow victory on Election Day. This time, the spending gap is even bigger: The MTA, as Question 2’s sole bankroller, has spent $7.7 million in staff time and money, including for ads and outside contractors, as of Oct. 1, to make the case to voters that passing the MCAS exam should no longer be a requirement for a high school diploma. Meanwhile, the business-backed opponents to Question 2 have spent just $1.2 million to maintain the current mandate.That’s a far cry from the $15 million raised to fight the millionaires tax, and also the $7 million to $10 million opponents had hoped to raise to mount a credible campaign against Question 2 this year. The spending gap is showing up on the airwaves — the MTA has put out two TV ads so far in support of Question 2, while opponents have had none — and perhaps in polling results. A poll released last week by the Globe and Suffolk University found that 58 percent of respondents planned to vote yes on Question 2 — up from 51 percent in an earlier poll.Many business leaders say they believe the MCAS graduation requirement is worth keeping, especially without another standard to take its place. It sets a standard across the state and assures employers that high school graduates have at least a certain level of skills regardless of where they go to school. And as an increasing number of employers seek out workers who are skilled but don’t have a bachelor’s degree, high school performance becomes even more important.“This is a really good way to make sure education is equitable for all the people of the Commonwealth,” said Citizens Bank executive Lisa Murray, who chairs the Massachusetts Business Roundtable. “One could foresee that if each school district is allowed their own graduation requirements, those systems that have weaker results will just lower the bar.”Despite the widespread concern, the fund-raising among business leaders has fallen surprisingly short, with just under $1.5 million raised as of Oct. 1. The biggest donor to the no-on-2 campaign has been Analog Devices cofounder Ray Stata, who has given $200,000. Six other executives, primarily in private equity, have given $100,000 apiece. And Boston-based Liberty Mutual has been the only significant corporate donor, pitching in $75,000.“This is barely a campaign,” said Mike Widmer, the retired former president of the business-backed Massachusetts Taxpayers Foundation. “The poll shows it’s beatable, but I just don’t see the strategy … and you have all the ads on the ‘yes’ side.”Jill Norton, left, an education consultant with Clark Street Consulting, spoke with Ed Lambert, executive director of the Mass. Alliance for Business Education at a recent panel discussion about Question 2 at the Newton Free Library.Matthew J. Lee/Globe StaffOpinions differ as to why Question 2’s opponents haven’t had more success so far.Some suggest the relatively low fund-raising numbers are indicative of a corporate Boston where many major employers are headquartered or do most of their business elsewhere, and thus, they see less at stake for their bottom line in local policy debates like this one. Others point to a separate effort to form a new business advocacy group called the Mass Opportunity Alliance as drawing some dollars away — though many of the leaders of that effort also support the no-on-2 campaign.Then there’s the fact that Boston’s business community is not a monolith but rather a loosely-knit network that crosses industries and organizations — a contrast to the MTA and its nearly 120,000 members. Getting everyone to mobilize behind a given cause hasn’t been easy in recent years, even when they agree about the cause itself.Without a more concerted push, the business community could end up with another ballot box defeat on their hands, said Evan Horowitz, executive director for Tufts University’s Center for State Policy Analysis.“There was a lesson from the millionaires tax that I heard from leaders of the business community, namely, had they organized earlier, then they probably would have been able to defeat it,” he said. “The lesson from that is to organize early. This is the first test case of that — and they don’t seem to have passed.”Even without any TV ads so far, the “no” campaign is still working to get its message out. Ed Lambert of the Massachusetts Business Alliance for Education said much of the campaign’s money has gone to placing ads on social media outlets, which have grown in importance in recent years. Lambert and other members of the business coalition have also been busy making the case at in-person events, such as political debates. Lambert says voters seem receptive.“Part of the challenge the MTA and [its supporters] have here is that the ballot question doesn’t offer a replacement [to the MCAS],” Lambert said. “Our data suggests that with the right messaging, we have majority support, particularly for maintaining a single statewide graduation standard.”The Massachusetts Teachers Association takes a different view, of course. President Max Page notes that the ballot question doesn’t get rid of the MCAS test, it simply takes away the requirement that high school students pass it to get their diploma. (An estimated 700 students a year in Massachusetts — around 1 percent — fail to get their degrees because of MCAS performance each year.) The test will still be there as a diagnostic tool for schools and students, just not a barrier to graduation. Also not going away: the state curriculum standards that spell out what should be taught to high schoolers.Max Page, president of the Massachusetts Teachers Association, addressed a crowd at a rally outside of Weymouth Town Hall in 2023.Matthew J. Lee/Globe StaffPage doesn’t buy the argument that ending the MCAS requirement would undercut public education or the state’s economic success. More important than testing, Page said, has been the dramatic increase in state funding for schools as part of the broad package of education reforms passed in 1993 on Beacon Hill — the same package that led to the creation of the MCAS.The union is in the midst of a door-to-door canvassing campaign and is running phone banks. It isn’t relying simply on TV ads, although the uptick in the polling after the first ad ran did not go unnoticed.“We just feel like this is a campaign that’s firing on all cylinders,” Page said.That worries employers such as Herby Duverné, who runs a security company in Charlestown called Windwalker Group. Windwalker often hires high school graduates for security jobs, and the MCAS test, he said, gives him some reassurance about their ability to perform on the job.“If something that’s helping us, that’s making us better as a state, to get rid of it, it’s just the wrong signal to the business community,” Duverné said. “From a business perspective, I do think we in Massachusetts need to keep our standards higher. That’s a big differentiator between us and other states.”Jon Chesto can be reached at [email protected]. Follow him @jonchesto.
