Australia, United Kingdom, United States Tout Drone Networks At Autonomous Warrior 2024

The three partner countries constituting the AUKUS trilateral security partnership on October 25 have concluded this years Autonomous Warrior (AW) exercise. The event lasted one month, testing thirty capabilities provided by Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States. Autonomous Warrior dates back to 2018, held annually between the three nations with further partners for selected events. Notably for the 2024-iteration Japan participated as an observer. The step is in line with Japan’s interest in joining the Pillar 2-element of AUKUS. Pillar 2 focuses on advanced capabilities and technology sharing among partners. This element of AUKUS complements Pillar 1, which aims to provide a nuclear powered submarine-capability to the Australian Navy (RAN).

Large range of drones included some unidentified systems

Swift Sea Stalker and MAPC GARC at AW 2024, Image via Australian Defence.

Ocean Aero Triton dual USV/UUV at AW 2024. Image via Australian Defence.

Unidentified large UUV at AW 2024, reminiscent of Kongsberg Hugin series. Image via Australian Defence.

Remus 600 series UUV at AW 2024. Image via Australian Defence.

The Ocius Bluebottle featured prominently at AW 2024. Image via Australian Defence.

High altitude balloon providing communications relay at AW 2024. Image via Australian Defence.

Notable systems featured in AW 2024 included the Ghost Shark, Remus 600 and Speartooth UUVs. The range of surface drones (USV) featured the Australian Ocius Bluebottle. US contributions included the Saronic Cutlass, the Global Autonomous Reconnaissance Craft, or GARC built by Maritime Applied Physics Corporation. Swift’s Sea Stalker and the Ocean Aero Triton, a combined USV and UUV, were further entries. Airborne systems included what the US DoD in a statement described as “a low-cost gondola, which supports operations in the upper stratosphere with minimum manpower or logistics requirements”. Another US-system were “T-200 high-altitude balloons, which provide resilient communications in denied environments from the stratosphere.”. Australia contributed the OWL-B loitering munition manufactured by Innovaero.

Footage released by Australia also showed a range of unidentified capabilities. These included a delta-winged UAV with pusher prop launched off a moving vehicle. An unknown large UUV resembled Kongsberg’s Hugin-range of underwater drones. Possibly related to the ASW-element of AW 2024 was an unidentified effector discharged from a Collins-class submarine at berth, presumably related to submarine countermeasure capabilities.

First appearance of Ghost Shark In Exercise

For Anduril’s Ghost Shark this years Autonomous Warrior exercise was the first published appearance in a complex testing environment. Image via Australian Defence.

Neither Anduril nor Australian Defence would provide further information on Ghost Shark within the scope of AW 2024. Image via Australian Defence.

For Anduril’s Ghost Shark AW 2024 represented the first publicised exercise in which the large uncrewed underwater vehicle has participated. Anduril earlier this year had also shipped a prototype from Australia to Hawaii, where the company promoted the design at RIMPAC 2024. Nevertheless information on Ghost Shark including basic capabilities and design features such as its propulsion remain unknown. Neither the manufacturer nor Australian officials have released more detailed information on the effort.

Networked Communication As Key Element Of AW 2024

Communications, command and control formed key aspects of AW 2024. Related PR material prominently included soft- and hardware such as an “AUKUS Common Control” workstation. Described as “Common Control System (CCS)” by the US statement the setup is “built on an open architecture to provide uncrewed vehicles hardware and software that works across several different systems. This effort supports future work to create an AUKUS-wide Common Control System, fusing best elements of the three countries’ existing systems.”

In this context the US also emphasized the “Multi-Domain Uncrewed Secure Integrated Communications (MUSIC) tested for its ability to enable seamless communication and coordination across diverse unmanned systems and operational environments.” Meanwhile the UK statement highlighted “Strike Net”, which also serves to integrate partner assets into national command and control-infrastructure. Additionally the Royal Navy contributed “SONIX”, an ASW information sharing-network utilizing sonobuoy-sensor data.

Joint operations centre at Autonomous Warrior 2024, highlighting trilateral efforts in command and control. Image via Australian Defence.

Australia and the United States also highlighted Autonomous Warrior in the overall series of AUKUS trilateral efforts dubbed “Maritime Big Play” (MBP). The US describe MBP as “a series of integrated trilateral experiments and exercises that are enhancing capability development, improving interoperability, and increasing the sophistication and scale of autonomous systems in the maritime domain.”. The three partners have not yet released schedule and planning information on next years Autonomous Warrior-iteration, or how it would evolve from the existing testing environment.

Is the United States on the brink of dictatorship?

“They say I’m Hitler. I am the opposite of a
Nazi.” From rumors about Haitians eating dogs and cats to rally jokes
about Puerto Ricans, it’s hard to say the Republican candidate’s campaign has
dispelled any misunderstandings, nor has it really tried. On the contrary, it
has played with the full range of dubious sentiments and populist emotions.
Isn’t white male discontent the raison d’être of Trumpism? 

While Donald Trump loves to paint himself as the victim,
his opponents have ample ammunition to depict him as the worst of demons. Among
many examples, consider his recent remarks about Xi Jinping, the most
authoritarian Chinese leader since the dark days of Maoism: “A brilliant
guy,” Trump opined. “He controls 1.4 billion people with an iron
fist.” His admiration for dictators is no secret. There’s reason to fear
that a second Trump term, surrounded by an even more submissive entourage, could
bring a wave of revenge and transgressions. The march of his supporters on the
Capitol after his defeat four years ago already had all the signs of an
attempted coup. Disorganized, perhaps. But next time?

Many who worked with him behind the closed doors
of the White House have now expressed grave concerns. According to John F. Kelly, a
former Marine general and his former chief of staff, if fascism is defined as “a
far-right, authoritarian, and ultranationalist political ideology and movement,
characterized by a dictatorial leader, centralized autocracy, militarism,
forced suppression of opposition, and belief in a natural social
hierarchy,” then, yes, “Trump is certainly a fascist.” Should we
take this accusation lightly?

Concerns for the future of American democracy are
widespread—and not only from the far right. Neo-puritanism on the left, in the
form of cancel culture, also has troubling characteristics. Trumpism draws much
of its strength, perhaps even its raison d’être, from this mirror game where
intolerance from one side fuels fanaticism on the other. Democracy only works
as long as opponents are not turned into enemies to be crushed. 

How far off seems the era when people prophesied “the end of history” with the universal triumph of liberal democracy!
Few foresaw—perhaps only St. John Paul II—that the system that had just overcome
communism would soon face its own moral turbulence. Military coups in Africa,
the “holy alliance” of Russian, Chinese, North Korean, and Iranian
dictators, “illiberal democracy” following the Hungarian or Turkish
models… To this troubling list, add “gray” tools for surveillance,
control, and manipulation of public opinion. These tools are being refined with
technological progress even as public attachment to freedoms declines. 

Trump is merely another name for an existential
crisis. Can this be resisted? The answer falling to a few thousand voters in
Pennsylvania or North Carolina is hardly reassuring, even though American civil
society still has powerful mechanisms in place.

Jean-Pierre Denis, a veteran journalist
and editor, is the publisher of La Croix International.

Montana State scientists study how wild oats become resistant to herbicides

With new funding from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, scientists in Montana State University’s Department of Plant Sciences and Plant Pathology will seek to fill knowledge gaps surrounding an agricultural weed that has caused problems for Montana producers for decades.Jennifer Lachowiec, an associate professor in MSU’s College of Agriculture, received two grants from the USDA’s National Institute of Food and Agriculture totaling more than $900,000 to study how wild oats develop herbicide resistance and to explore management techniques for the weed.Lachowiec’s work blends several disciplines including plant genetics, remote sensing and molecular biology. The project, which includes collaborators William Dyer and Barbara Keith in the Department of Plant Sciences and Plant Pathology and Tim Seipel and Paul Nugent in the Department of Land Resources and Environmental Sciences, aims to give agricultural producers recommendations for either precise herbicide applications or alternative management practices.“By understanding how herbicide resistance can be induced by stressful environments, like high temperatures, we can inform the development of new tools and strategies to overcome weeds and prevent ineffectual use of herbicides,” said Lachowiec. “This will contribute to better environmental health and economic outcomes for agricultural markets.”By Reagan Cotton, MSU News Service

Scientists Reveal The Depths Of Megamouth Shark Movements

Since the unexpected discovery of a megamouth shark (Megachasma pelagios) entangled in a parachute sea anchor off the coast of Hawaii in 1976, the scientific community has been captivated by this rather odd species.

Despite its impressive size — growing over 23 feet (7 meters) long and weighing more than 2425 pounds (1100 kilograms) — less than 300 individuals have been documented since that first encounter. Unlike the more familiar whale (Rhincodon typus) and basking sharks (Cetorhinus maximus), the megamouth remains a shadowy figure in our history books. Rarely seen… and even more rarely studied. Unlike more commonly studied sharks, the megamouth shark has not been the subject of long-term tracking studies. As a result, scientists have been left to hypothesize about their migratory patterns, seasonal habitat use, and the driving factors behind these movements based on sparse data. One study tracked a single megamouth shark off southern California for just over two days, revealing a pattern of vertical migration—rising toward the surface at night and descending into deeper waters during the day. However, whether this behavior is typical of the species or just one of several movement strategies remains unclear.

What we do know about them is pieced together from chance captures, strandings, and a few sightings. For example, scientists know megamouths roam the neritic and oceanic waters of tropical and subtropical latitudes, spanning depths from the surface down to the bathypelagic zone over 3937 ft (1200 m) deep. Their broad depth range and diet of vertically migrating zooplankton suggest that the megamouth shark may rely more on deep-sea prey than previously thought. Unique to this species is a white band of denticles across its upper jaw, which researchers believe could reflect bioluminescent light from deep-sea plankton, potentially attracting prey in the dark waters where these sharks often roam. Understanding these deep-sea behaviors is crucial, especially since the megamouth shark inhabits some of the most polluted waters on Earth, where microplastics pose a threat to other filter-feeding species.

And while the International Union for Conservation of Nature lists the megamouth shark as Least Concern, with an unknown population trend, this status offers little comfort to conservationists, given the species’ vast and largely unexplored range. With their slow reproductive rates and potentially long lifespans, any increase in mortality could have a significant impact on their populations.

Thus, a recent study set out to investigate the horizontal and vertical movements of megamouth sharks in the northwest Pacific, focusing on waters off the coast of Taiwan. By tagging adult megamouth sharks with pop-up satellite archival transmitters, researchers were able to track their movements for periods ranging from 12 to 244 days. The data revealed that megamouth sharks exhibit a pattern of normal diel vertical migration, spending most of their daylight hours in the mesopelagic zone, which lies between 656 – 3280 ft (200 – 1,000 m) deep. At night, they ascend to the epipelagic zone, closer to the surface. This behavior is consistent with the movement of their prey—zooplankton that also migrate vertically. By following this food source, megamouth sharks likely optimize their feeding efficiency while minimizing the risk of predation.

The study’s findings also revealed that megamouth sharks may exhibit behavioral thermoregulation, adjusting their depth to remain within an optimal temperature range. This is a significant insight into megamouths, as it suggests that these sharks are not merely passive drifters in the ocean currents but active participants in managing their thermal environment. Such behavior would allow them to conserve energy and maintain their physiological functions in the varying thermal conditions they encounter during their vertical migrations.
SIZUOKA, JAPAN: Children peer into a stuffed specimen of a 4.2-meter-long megamouth shark at Tokai … [+] University Marine Science Museum in Sizuoka, 200km west of Tokyo, 18 August 2004. The unique species of shark is one of only 21 of its type that have been caught since 1976 off Hawaii. The world’s first stuffed megamouth, which was caught 07 August 2003 near Shizuoka, is on display until 31 August at the museum. AFP PHOTO/Toru YAMANAKA (Photo credit should read TORU YAMANAKA/AFP via Getty Images)AFP via Getty Images

Yet, the most intriguing finding was their apparent fidelity to specific regions, particularly the waters east of Taiwan. One of the tagged sharks remained in this area for an extended period, suggesting that megamouth sharks might have preferred habitats or seasonal residences. However, the data also showed broader-scale movements, with one shark traveling into the South China Sea, indicating that their range can extend well beyond these core areas. The authors believe this data challenges previous assumptions that megamouth sharks are primarily nomadic, suggesting instead that they may have more intricate spatial strategies that vary with life stage, season, and possibly sex.
Despite the valuable insights gained from this study, many questions about megamouth sharks remain unanswered. For example, it is still unclear whether the observed migratory and behavioral patterns are consistent across different populations or if they vary depending on environmental conditions. There is also a considerable lack of data on juvenile megamouth sharks that leaves a significant gap in our understanding of their early life stages and how these might influence their later behavior and survival. While this study is a significant step forward, it also underscores the need for further research to fully understand the species’ role in the marine ecosystem and the potential threats it faces. Future research will need to focus on longer-term tracking and broader sampling to fully uncover the secrets of the megamouth shark’s movements and behavior in the deep ocean.

Why Clocks Go Back Just After Halloween: The Surprising Science Behind The Holiday

What is the origin of Halloween? Taking place this week on Thursday, Oct. 31, Halloween is an important day not only for ghosts, ghouls and spirits but also for anyone interested in our planet’s incredible annual journey around the sun.

The holiday is also, perhaps surprisingly, connected to a question commonly asked at this time of year: when do the clocks go back? It’s no coincidence that the end of daylight savings in North America — which will happen this Sunday, Nov. 3 — occurs just a few days after Halloween.

Halloween, you see, isn’t just a traditional holiday with curious origins. Oct. 31 also happens to be what astronomers call a cross-quarter day.

Here’s everything you need to know about the astronomical reasons for Halloween — and why the clocks go back shortly after it.

What Is Halloween And Why Is It Celebrated?
The holiday of Halloween, or All Hallow’s Eve, has its roots in the ancient Celtic festival of Samhain, according to the Library of Congress, when the harvest would be welcomed, and bonfires were lit to ward off ghosts.

But there’s something special about the date.
Why Is Halloween On Oct. 31 Every Year?

Why is Halloween always at the end of October? It’s no coincedence. Oct. 31 is precisely halfway between September’s equinox and December’s solstice. That makes it a cross-quarter day, an important waymarker to ancient cultures that helped track the changing of the seasons in Earth’s yearly orbit around the sun.

Halloween marks the halfway point of fall.Groundhog Day each Feb. 2 is also a cross-quarter day. (Photo by Jeff Swensen/Getty Images)Getty Images
What Are Cross-Quarter Days?
Cross-quarter days are important waymarkers in our planet’s annual trip around the sun, but the familiarity of some of them will likely surprise you. Here they are for the coming year, 2024, alongside the dates for the equinoxes and solstices:

October 31, 2024: Halloween and All Soul’s Day (midpoint between the equinox and solstice).
December 21, 2024: December solstice
February 2, 2025: Groundhog Day and Candlemas, a holy day in the Christian calendar (midpoint between the solstice and equinox).
March 20, 2025: March equinox (northward)
May 1, 2025: May Day, a traditional spring holiday in the northern hemisphere (midpoint between the equinox and solstice).
June 20, 2025: June solstice
August 1, 2025: Lammas, a traditional pagan celebration of the first harvest of the season (midpoint between the solstice and equinox).
September 22, 2025: September equinox (southward)

Halloween And Daylight Savings
Daylight saving time (DST) starts on the second Sunday in March and ends on the first Sunday in November in the U.S. According to Timeanddate.com, in 2024, the clocks were turned forward one hour to 03:00 a.m. at 02:00 a.m. on Sunday, Mar. 10, and will be turned backward one hour to 01:00 a.m. at 02:00 a.m. on Sunday, Nov. 3.
Why? Earth’s 23.5-degree axial tilt causes seasons, leading to varying day lengths. Unlike the equator, where daylight remains roughly 12 hours year-round, northern and southern regions experience significant differences between summer and winter. Hence the need for a time-shift halfway through fall — Halloween.
Daylight Savings And Arizona
The exception is Arizona, which does not observe daylight saving time. The Grand Canyon State remains on Mountain Standard Time the entire year, with the exception of the Navajo Nation, which does adhere to daylight savings times.
Wishing you clear skies and wide eyes.

SC tech firm calls in a Wall St. titan to review its slumping $750M investment

One of South Carolina’s largest technology companies is working with a major Wall Street dealmaker to sort out the future of its biggest-ever acquisition, a $750 million investment that hasn’t paid off.Blackbaud Inc. said Oct. 30 that it’s working with bankers at Goldman Sachs to review “strategic options” for Everfi, including the possibility of a sale of the online education unit.

The Daniel Island-based company also “recently right-sized” the struggling subsidiary and eliminated “some pretty substantial” expenses to better match up the costs with the revenue, CEO Mike Gianoni told financial analysts during a conference call.”We’ve got Goldman Sachs on the case here to work with us. So, we’ll resolve this problem,” Gianoni said.

Blackbaud said in a written statement late after the earnings call that the cost reductions included “a small reduction in workforce in some areas within the Everfi business, but that was a relatively small component.”The update was included in a quarterly sales and profit report that fell short of Wall Street’s expectations, triggering a sharp sell-off in Blackbaud’s stock. Shares of the Nasdaq-listed company skidded 15 percent to $74.29.

The slumping Everfi business also prompted Blackbaud to cut its 2024 revenue estimate by between $14 million and $34 million. The company now expects its total sales for the year to fall in the $1.15 billion to $1.16 billion range.

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“We expect headwinds at Everfi to continue in the near term, which is reflected in our revised guide,” said Tony Boor, chief financial officer.Acquired in late 2021, Everfi was an established player in a growing $10 billion market, with 500 workers, $120 million in annual revenue and 2,000-plus customers that included big banks and the National Football League.

At the time, the Washington, D.C.-based company was riding a hot trend. In addition to selling standard digital learning products for K-12 students, its platform could help big businesses meet “environmental, social and governance” goals, or ESG, by providing them with online content ranging from financial wellness to racial equity and workplace diversity.

Everfi was expected to boost Blackbaud’s top line with annual sales gains of nearly 20 percent, but it hasn’t followed through. Its 2024 revenue is down 17 percent to $67 million through Sept. 30.Earlier this year, Gianoni told investors unfavorable shifts in spending on “corporate social responsibility” programs were hurting Everfi. The CEO also announced that a turnaround plan was in the works.Gianoni said Wednesday that the customers he’s met remain “enamored” with the subsidiary’s online products. He rattled off several “wins” Everfi has finalized this year with customers such as NASCAR, Truth Initiative and Guardian Life Insurance Co.

“There’s just been some macro pullback in the space, which has caused the business to … struggle … . In fact, it’s going backwards a bit. But it’s not all doom and gloom,” he said.

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Why are scientists suddenly interested in UFOs?

In 2015, U.S. Navy pilots were flying training missions off the U.S. East Coast when they spied something highly unusual. An oval-shaped object appeared to skim across the top of the water. It moved at incredibly high speed and seemed to be rotating as it flew. Soon, the pilots realized there seemed to be many of them and started commenting to each other about what they were seeing.

“There’s a whole fleet of them.”

“My gosh.”

“Look at that thing, dude!”

“Wow. What is that, man? Look at it flying!”

Pilots had seen similar objects almost daily for months. These didn’t look like typical aircraft. They had no visible engines. They didn’t seem to give off exhaust. And they didn’t just skim the sea. Some appeared 30,000 feet (more than 9 kilometers) in the air and moved at supersonic speeds.

Hardly quacks or UFO fanatics, these were highly trained pilots. And they weren’t newbies, either. One who reported the sightings was Lt. Ryan Graves, an F/A-18 Super Hornet pilot. He had been in the Navy for 10 years. He and the others knew what normal aircraft looked like. They also knew how to keep their cool under pressure.

The public only became aware of their sightings four years later. That’s when The New York Times published an article about them. The online article included leaked video recorded by cameras on the Navy planes. In April 2020, the U.S. Navy confirmed those videos were real — and then officially released them.

[embedded content]
In 2020, an international service shared these videos captured in 2015 by U.S. Navy pilots watching a UAP. The military only formally released the video in April of 2020.

In recent years, these and other very credible sources have reported seeing UFOs — unidentified flying objects. Now they’re called Unexplained Aerial Phenomena, or UAP. But whatever you call them, the U.S. government has lately begun taking these mystery objects seriously. Very seriously. And it’s recruited a lot of scientists to investigate what’s behind them (albeit quietly).

We still don’t know what the pilots and others have seen. But here’s what’s motivated the new and growing scientific interest in them.

The summer of UFOs

Military pilots reporting UFOs may be new. The public, however, has reported UFO sightings for decades. It began in the summer of 1947.

In July 1947, Major Jesse Marcel inspects the debris recently found on Mac Brazel’s ranch. Roswell Daily Record’s Roswell Incident

On June 14 of that year, Mac Brazel found some strange debris on his ranch. The ranch sits on the outskirts of Roswell, N.M. He thought the material might be a kite. However, he couldn’t reassemble the bits of rubber, tinfoil, paper and wood strips into anything that looked like a kite.

Brazel told the local sheriff what he’d found. The ranch was near Roswell Army Air Field (RAAF), a military base. So the sheriff reported this to the Army. 

Officers from RAAF went to the ranch for a look. They couldn’t identify the wreckage, either. The next day, the Army base issued a press release saying that the military had found remnants of a flying saucer.

The local newspaper even ran the headline: “RAAF Captures Flying Saucer on Ranch in Roswell.” A few days later, the Army changed its story. They said the debris came from a weather balloon. But it was too late to dampen the excitement about flying saucers. UFO fever had gripped the nation.

And since then, it’s never let go.

Here’s how one local newspaper reported the Army’s report on analysis of debris found at the Brazel farm in 1947.Roswell Daily Record’s Roswell IncidentHere’s how one local newspaper reported the Army’s report on analysis of debris found at the Brazel farm in 1947.

The government comes clean

UFOs are real. There’s no question about that.

The term simply means the witnessed object is unknown and moving through the air. If you see something in the sky that you can’t identify, then by definition it’s a UFO. But when people ask if UFOs are real, what they usually mean is: “Are we being visited by aliens?”

And science certainly has no answers yet for that.

After Roswell, people started reporting lots of UFOs. Some witnesses made wild claims they couldn’t back up. Someone might say they’d encountered an alien. Some even claimed to have been abducted by aliens. But there was never any physical evidence to support such statements.

This comic strip from the 1950s shows how much UFOs influenced popular culture.NAID: 595553/U.S. National Archives

Soon conspiracy theories started circulating. People said they’d heard an alien spaceship had crashed in Roswell. They shared rumors that the government had stashed away bodies of aliens who’d died in the crash. Those bodies were allegedly kept in a secret installation in Nevada known as Area 51.

These stories were ridiculous. But still they spread.

The government didn’t help much. It had secrets of its own that had nothing to do with aliens. Eventually, the government admitted it had been hiding something — it just wasn’t little green men. A 1995 Air Force report tried to put the hidden-aliens story to rest. It said the debris that landed on the Brazel ranch had not been a weather balloon after all.

It was part of Project Mogul — a secret program to develop balloons that could identify and track Soviet missile launches. (Remember, this happened in 1947, during the Cold War. At that time, the United States and the Soviet Union were stockpiling nuclear weapons in case of another world war.)

The Air Force also explained away the alien “bodies” that people thought they had seen. These were crash-test dummies used to test ejection seats in experimental aircraft.

Coming clean about Roswell didn’t end the conspiracy theories, however. Wild tales continued. And for years the government didn’t say much more about UFOs.

But when the story about the 2015 Navy pilot sightings broke, the government began to talk more openly about UFOs.

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Congressional hearings and government reports

In 2021, the government released a brief report. It had turned up no evidence of aliens. It did admit, however, that many UAP sightings have been recorded since 2004. And they remain unexplained.

That doesn’t mean these were craft built or piloted by aliens, of course. There are probably several explanations, the report said. Some might be birds. Others might be trash, such as escaped party balloons. Some could be secret military projects. And some might be new technology developed by other countries.

That last one is what concerned many members of Congress and the military.

The next spring, in May 2022, Congress held a public hearing on UFOs. High-ranking officials from the military testified. They said 400 more unexplained sightings had been reported since the 2021 report. Still, nothing pointed to aliens.

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Scott Bray testified at the hearing. Deputy Director of Naval Intelligence at the time, he explained why the government wasn’t saying much about these sightings: “We do not want potential [military enemies] to know exactly what we are able to see.” (Bray now works in intelligence for NATO, an international military alliance.)

Then, in July 2022, the Pentagon created AARO. That stands for All-domain Anomaly Resolution Office. Its job is to investigate UFOs. Again, the government doesn’t call them that anymore. Their term is UAP. In fact, that name change was an attempt to remove some of the stigma associated with the study of UFOs.

The military now wants to know if these objects are a threat. Science will settle for a simpler answer: What are they?

Astronomers are enlisting new technologies in the quest to answer one of the most intriguing research questions of all: Are we alone in the universe?zhengzaishuru/iStock/Getty Images Plus

Scientists step up

There’s reason to think we probably aren’t alone in the universe. Earth is 4.5 billion years old. The earliest life on Earth is 3.5 billion or maybe 4 billion years old, explains Seth Shostak. This astrophysicist is senior astronomer at the SETI Institute. That’s in Mountain View, Calif. (SETI stands for Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence.)

Life on Earth emerged fairly quickly. This suggests, Shostak says, that it wasn’t hard for life to begin. And if it quickly started on Earth, life probably could have started in many other places throughout the cosmos, too.

And there are plenty of other places.

There are a trillion planets in the Milky Way alone. And that’s just our galaxy. There may be more than a trillion habitable planets in the universe, Shostak says. “So yeah,” he adds, “there’s plenty of opportunity for life.” But that still doesn’t mean that aliens have been visiting Earth.

Julia DeMarines is an astrobiologist. She studies how life might evolve on other planets. DeMarines works at the University of California, Berkeley and is a former SETI observer. SETI researchers look for signs of life elsewhere in the universe. They don’t study UFOs. Few scientists do.

[embedded content]
Astrobiologist Julia DeMarines describes her favorite research — the search for life beyond Earth — and how she tries to identify signatures of possible extraterrestrials.

Until recently, DeMarines says, most scientists described the study of UFOs as pseudoscience. No surprise, then, that scientists who are interested in UAP have seldom talked about it. They didn’t want other scientists to think they’re kooks.

But that’s changing.

In June 2022, NASA assembled a team of scientific experts. Their mission: Figure out how NASA can help study UAP.

As Bill Nelson, the space agency’s administrator, put it: “NASA searches for the unknown in air and space. It’s in our DNA.” One of the goals of the new team, he said at a news event, would be to “shift the conversation about UAP from sensationalism to science.”

The team made some specific recommendations. For instance, it said NASA should use its enormous body of space data for this study of UAP. And it should work with other government agencies to investigate reported sightings. The team also emphasized that all UAP studies must stay focused on evidence and data.

Avi Loeb agreed. And he wanted to help. Loeb is an astrophysicist at Harvard University in Cambridge, Mass. “To study those things,” he argues, “is the duty of scientists.”

Avi Loeb of Harvard holds a few of bits of debris from a space object of unknown origin and type: a UFO. Some melted bits have a very unusual composition. They appear to be materials never before seen in our solar system.Galileo Project, led by Professor Avi Loeb (Harvard)

In 2021, Loeb started the Galileo Project to scientifically investigate UAP. It doesn’t collect stories about UAP. It doesn’t rely on accidental sightings. Instead, it scans the skies with telescopes in an observatory at Harvard.

“We basically take a movie of the sky,” explains Loeb. Then artificial intelligence helps analyze the data. Two more observatories are in the works. Loeb hopes to have 10 eventually. More than 100 scientists are already involved.

The Galileo Project used a magnetic sled to recover from the seafloor remnants of debris from a mystery object that fell into the ocean near Papua New Guinea in 2014. They’re viewing some of the bits here. U.S. Space Command confirmed the object came from outside Earth’s solar system.Galileo Project, led by Professor Avi Loeb (Harvard)

Computer display of spheres retrieved by the Galileo Project from a mystery space object that fell into the Pacific. The bits do not appear to be from our solar system. Scientists still do not know what they are or where they’re from. As such, they’re remnants of a UFO. Galileo Project, led by Professor Avi Loeb (Harvard)

This is different from what AARO is doing, says Loeb. “Their job is to protect national security. I’m trying to figure out the world.”

Loeb and his team are not the only ones. NASA’s involvement changed things, says Greg Eghigian. He’s a historian at Penn State University in University Park. He wrote a book titled After the Flying Saucers Came: A Global History of the UFO Phenomenon. NASA’s involvement was a signal to scientists that talking openly about UAP is OK, Eghigian says. It allowed scientists to discuss ideas that had been taboo.

More mysteries

Now that science is on the job, what can we expect to learn about UAP and maybe even alien life? One possibility is that science may be able to explain the previously unexplained.

DeMarines says UAP could be due to some unusual weather conditions. For example, spacecraft launched from Earth around sunset can create weird effects. When the sun is setting, she explains, gases expelled by the spacecraft will reflect only that light reaching the upper atmosphere. What’s more, she adds, “They stay reflective for a long time. So it looks unexplainable.”

Or UAP could be an effect caused by light bouncing off communications satellites, Loeb says. And, of course, it could be technology not from another planet, but from another country on this one.

But what about aliens? Could UAP really be alien spaceships?

Let’s learn about the hunt for alien life

Garrett Graff is a historian and author. He wrote the 2024 book UFO: The Inside Story of the US Government’s Search for Alien Life Here — and Out There. While doing research for it, he noticed something people often get wrong when they think about aliens and UAP. “We expect first contact with alien life to be like it is in movies, like Independence Day or Contact,” he says. But in real life, he notes, it might not be that obvious.

Our first encounter with aliens, Graff says, might not be meeting them. It might be finding remnants of their tech.

For example, we might find a piece of space trash that doesn’t come from our world. Graff compares this to spotting an empty plastic bag blowing through our cosmic backyard. We look at it and think: “That’s not from our Walmart.” We’ll know it didn’t originate on Earth, but we won’t know where it did come from.

Will we know alien life when we see it?

One reason we may not see the aliens themselves is that they may no longer exist. In 1961, astronomer Frank Drake came up with a way to estimate how many alien societies could be broadcasting signals. It’s called the Drake Equation. It accounts for several factors. These include the rate at which stars form and the number of planets with an environment that might support life — the “Goldilocks zone.”

But the last factor in Drake’s equation is very interesting, says DeMarines. It’s represented by the letter “L.” That stands for the length of time technological civilizations produce signs of their existence. These could be radio waves, pollution from industry or even city lights. 

DeMarines points out that our civilization has been technologically advanced for little more than 100 years. And that’s in a universe that’s almost 14 billion years old. Her point is that the timing might not overlap. There may have been many other civilizations like ours. And there may be many more to come. But the chances that ours and theirs occur at the same time aren’t terribly good, she says.

Cool Jobs: Reaching out to E.T. is a numbers game

Shostak, however, thinks it won’t be long until we find alien life, or at least evidence that it’s out there somewhere. “There have been 10,000 generations of Homo sapiens,” he says. “And the people reading this article are probably members of the first one in which we learn that there’s life in outer space.”

So what about UAP? Is there evidence that alien life is visiting Earth? Science is on the case.

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